Guild Wars 2 Expansion Predicted

Guild Wars 2 Expansion Incoming

Is there a Guild Wars 2 expansion in the works? Probably.

When will it be out, though? That’s anyone’s guess — though some guesses have a bit more to go on than others.

The latest report from Korean securities firm KDB Daewoo has mostly good things to say about NCSoft, particularly regarding the launch of Guild Wars 2 and its first few months of operation. Specifically, Q4 2012 is cited as setting a record in operating profit for the company, with GW2 leading the way to the tune of 118 billion Korean won ($110 million USD). Combined with a 3Q OP of W46 billion ($43 million), that makes for a grand total of over $150 million.

Lineage II also gets some of the credit for NCSoft’s strong fourth quarter, with Blade & Soul and Aion expected to “remain flat.”

As for the future, the report considers the overseas — i.e., North America and Europe — market to be the most lucrative in 2013, including this exciting tidbit:

In China, the company is planning to launch Blade & Soul (via a publishing agreement with Tencent) in 3Q13 and Guild Wars 2 in 4Q13 (via a publishing agreement with Kong Zhong). Furthermore, we expect NCsoft to release an expansion pack for Guild Wars 2 in Europe and the US in 2H13.

OK, but we all figure a GW2 expansion is planned at some point in the next year or so. So what gives this estimate any credence? For that answer, look back at the first few words of the report:

We recently visited NCsoft

Now, we don’t think they walked in the doors of the NCSoft office and some executive said, “Hey, we’re doing a Guild Wars 2 expansion in the second half of 2013.” But they probably saw some projections and were able to piece together what they did see to come up with a reasonable explanation for whatever spike(s) they may have seen. And this is about as close to the source as you can get without visiting ArenaNet‘s offices.

KDB Daewoo also predicted that a Guild Wars 2 launch date announcement was “imminent” about three weeks before the actual announcement was made, so they’ve got something of a track record.

Then again, they also predicted Guild Wars 2 would launch before Thanksgiving. Technically correct, but about three months off. Close enough? We’ll have to wait and see.

  • rulez

    I’m very curious about what a GW2 expansion will bring besides new places. Will we have a very similar gear reset compared to traditional MMOs, or would they scale up at least legendaries across expansions? How much will the level cap be raised? I guess we have more than enough time for all kinds of speculation, before seeing the first official announcement with juicy details.

    • Ian Mansfield

      see I don’t see upgrading legendaries to match the gear treadmill would be right in anyway, BUT if they gave you a free lvl 80 transmutation stone after you got your new max stat weapon I could see that. Im looking forward to see the personal story being expanded on in an expansion, and hopefully improved, I loved in the end of our personal stories we got a lot less dialog cut scenes but actual action cut scenes.

      • http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

        My understanding is the legendary weapons will be equal to the best weapons. So, you wouldn’t have to acquire the best weapon, your legendary is upgraded.

        • Jado Cast

          That’s what Chris said in the AMA, they will always be equal to the “best stats”.

          • Ian Mansfield

            aww, I have the bolt and I was hoping someting interesting like if you have a legendary weapon you could upgrade it by doing a special quest from an NPC on a new continent, to keep it interesting, I mean not an insanely difficult quest but something fun that has to do with the lore of the weapon. And each legendary would let you do a different questy thing. The only thing you would get would be the upgrade item to make your weapon stronger and some lore stuff, and maybe some cinematic

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/CQUOGCSKU5Z6NUMDHMSDD5PHIE Keenan

       They have said multiple times that Legendaries will ALWAYS be best in slot.

    • Chris Catone

       Playable Karka ;).

      • balen arenas

         As long as I get to do the roly poly move, I’m game.

    • http://www.facebook.com/jonathan.hornsby.7 Jonathan Hornsby

      Well based on their history with GW1 as well as some early interviews –now a few years old- I can safely say we’ll see a whole new continent with a new story, likely a new class or two, and maybe a new race. However I am going to say we likely won’t see, assuming they stick with their GW1 methods, gear progression or an increase in the level cap. GW1 never had a level increase in any of its three expansions, nor any new gear progression outside of grinding for cosmetics. Also I’d be shocked if we don’t get at least one extra character slot to go with the new class/race choices. (Each GW1 expansion came with two character slots.)

  • Michael Duckfield

    A new profession maybe?    I hope they don’t go for the Monk straight away. I vote Ritualist.

    • dawolv

       I actually don’t like the idea of them adding new professions.
      Races – sure, knock yourselves out – Tengu are probably the first in line (if you look at the map it’s like they wanted them to be in the launch version but cut their teritory out last minute and just slapped a wall around it) and Kodan are also going strong!

      Professions however can ruin the balance, which I think they have gotten a pretty good grab on! Also, there are only so many arcitypes available.
      In general you have what you’d usually see (Mages (incl. necros), rouges, warriors (not tanks), guardian (not healer), hunter and a supportish character (Engineer). Add the semi-original Mesmer to the mix and you have the standart arcitypes.

      What were the dervishes? They were pretty much warriors with a bit mage-like qualities (have that already, called guardian).
      What were the Ritualists? Kinda a mix between necro and ranger style wise, but the gameplay has been reworked into the Engineer.

      So, I think profession wise they will have to do an outstanding job for me to be ok with it… we’ll see in January I guess

      • http://www.facebook.com/jonathan.hornsby.7 Jonathan Hornsby

        I’m still hoping for a true summoner. I don’t count necromancer because it just spams throwaway minions, I want a persistent NPC ally, not some tool to be exploited and discarded.

        • dawolv

           Ranger?
          Basically with the switch function thats kinda your guy then!

          I don’t think a summoner will make a new solid and distinct enough new architype for a profession

          • http://www.facebook.com/jonathan.hornsby.7 Jonathan Hornsby

            Going to quote myself from GW2guru here, hope you don’t mind.

            “Ultimately though I tend to look to
            rangers or other beastmasters for a semblance of this style, but often
            find myself disappointed in how few viable builds these styles offer, and
            how like minions a ranger pet is treated as a tool, not an ally.”

          • dawolv

            True, but I don’t think you can’t get any more permanent than this!
            Besides, having 1, maybe 2 or 3 permanent minions (basically a Mesmer w/o shattering) will make a Ranger obsolete.

            Also, what OTHER skills would this profession have?
            The summoning will be in the F-Keys one has to assume, and then what? What will the style of the profession be?

            Also: Another light armor class? Having a 4-3-2 Armor distribution might hurt the economy, as light armor pieces will have to have a higher drop chance for it to remain fair, but then heavy armor will become more expensive..

            I don’t know.
            They should just stick with the 8 they have!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1653322492 Kevin J. Redmond

    Great article, Jason.  I’m not sure what I think about their statement that the NA and EU markets will be the most lucrative in 2013.  It seems very much that, with the exception of GW2 and ArenaNet, NCSoft has headed very much in a solely eastern direction.  Consider the cancellation of CoH which was still turning a profit here, but always did poorly in Asian countries, and the merger this year with Japanese company Nexon — it shows that they are broadening their grasp of the Asian market.  GW2 has made NA and EU a lucrative venture, but GW2 is also bound to do well in China when it releases.

    After GW2 launched in Q312, the NA percentage of sales for NCSoft went up from 4% to 16%, but the Korean sales were 55%.  It’s still the biggest chunk of sales for NCSoft.  I’m just not sure what makes them think that NA and EU will be the MOST lucrative in 2013.  Even if the expansion pack sells as many copies as the core game did, it still will not surpass typical S. Korea sales, and I do think they are excluding the step into the Japanese market they took with the Nexon merger.

  • http://www.MasterRenny.com/ Thomas Renshaw

    Id personally like to see whats been going off over in cantha after the emperor united the 3 factions! see how much that place has changed, plus i just loved the gothic style gear

    but then again i guess id like to see different/new continents maybe off to the west of the tyria instead of north east and south east ! 

    Plus id love to seea dedicated healing class! there can still be a dedicated healing class and still not need the Tank/DPS/Healer setup…plus if there would ever be raiding imo youd need a healer class

    • http://www.facebook.com/petacuellar Pete Cuellar

      There will NEVER be a dedicated healer period

      • http://www.MasterRenny.com/ Thomas Renshaw

        And there is a whole list of things people said would NEVER happen and then do happen”period”

        • http://www.facebook.com/petacuellar Pete Cuellar

          What long list are talking about Ascended gear?

        • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100002779712502 Esteban Cordoba

          just because blizzard gives shit to ppl when they cry in forums does not mean Anet will do it….. this IS NOT WOW stop asking for this kind of shit, if u want healing class go play wow or some other MMO

          • http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

            Well, that Guild Wars 2 community sure is the nicest. 

          • Jack_Sisco

             one man’s actions doesn’t reflect the community; however while his sentiments are blunt, they do mirror the majority OF the community.

          • http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

            Yep, not the first time I’ve seen that response.  Seen folks provide the least amount feedback that is not lockstep with Arenanet and they lose their minds.

          • Jant0n

             I’ve seen this in many different game forums; it is not the exclusive domain of the Guild Wars community.

          • http://www.MasterRenny.com/ Thomas Renshaw

            You dont know if its the majority or the minority so stop kidding yourself

          • Jant0n

             He does not represent the entire community. I’ve met some very nice people, but in games there are always going to be some people that are rude.

          • http://www.MasterRenny.com/ Thomas Renshaw

            Secondly I’m not crying at ArenaNet i just said what ID PERSONALLLY LIKE TO SEE ! These are MY OPINIONS! And you retards being all ” GO PLAY WOW BLA BLA BLA” won’t suddenly make me see “the light” and change my mind. Get over the fact not everyone enjoys plying a tank or dps role! Congrats ArenaNet tried something different and to a extent it worked but who was they trying to prove themselves to with the whole OMG WE’LL SHOW YOU DONT NEED A DEDICATED HEALER! Because yes it works but it ONLY WORKS because the game is designed NOT to have a healer. Therefore it PROVES nothing.

        • Chris Catone

          Those sound like perhaps the least knowledgeable people.  When it comes to what Anet says, there’s been nothing but consistency…there’s no accounting for people’s misinformed expectations.

          edit: just remembered, guesting @ release. Not a reversal but unforeseen complications.

          • http://www.MasterRenny.com/ Thomas Renshaw

            Just because you manage to string sentences together with big words don’t mean you know everything and can say “these two” are whatever you fucking said mate ;) because firstly i wasn’t on about what ArenaNet “says” so go back sit the fk down and stfu <333

        • dawolv

           Still, they created their intire game around this principle, so I highly doubt they can NOW turn around and introduce a dedicated healer.

          For starters, DEDICATED will mean the damage output will be low as a tradeoff. I can tell you, as a mesmer the personal story is already hard as ballz, because the Mesmer has 2, maybe 3 AoE Abilities on a huge cooldown. The lower level story was a piece of cake for my necro, my mesmer, sadly, died quite a lot.
          Now imagine a class that has even less attack damage and is the same toughness class (armor wise)
          Not gonna work!

          Any new profession they add will be capable of tanking, healing and dealing damage, or else this supposed new profession will simply be not fit for purpose and break the balance for both PvP and PvE.

          That of course is not saying the can’t make a monk! But they will have to design his abilities to incorporate the smiting more (maybe even into the F-Key special abilities) and reserve the healing, as have other classes, to certain weapon types and support skills.

      • Joshua Branstetter

        Yeah, unfortunately for healer fans it goes against the very design structure of the class system in it’s current form. I love it the way it is, but I can understand some people preferring to have dedicated healers.

    • http://www.facebook.com/lee.joel1 Lee Joel

      The beauty of the game is there is no trinity. But I do think that the support roles could be more robust. Kinda sad that folks who spec full healer and gear for it still feel useless. If they dont want that role at all then do away with it. People want all of something not tasters. Id like to see healing specced people actually shine but not to the point where they can over compensate for other peoples mistakes. Issue with wow is that healers were expected to save the lives of complete donuts where those people shold be left to take a dirt nap :D

      Btw high crit n omnom pies = good effective self healing.

  • http://twitter.com/bugabuga Max Smolev

    Well, GW2 periodically does get new events, could it be that the expansion is next one? (like Wintersday or that ancient critter invasion)

  • http://www.facebook.com/petacuellar Pete Cuellar

    I don’t think there’s expansion coming in 2013 but I wouldn’t be surprised by it haven’t they been saying that they already have people working on expacs?

    • Chris Catone

       Agreed…especially with all the stuff they planned for release but didn’t make it.  I’ll bet there will be a bit of free content in 2013 (I can’t imagine everything they didn’t have ready is going to be released in the Jan/Feb content CJ mentioned).  I’m sure the ickiness that happened around launch and the cool reception of the November content will still be in the back of their minds when deciding whether to release the 1st expansion or not.

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/W76UOX2IDTRMMYTPASSJDLXLRM Bob

      I could easily see an expansion coming in Nov 2013. I’m guessing the opening up of the Dominion of Winds and Northern Shiverpeaks and the adding of the Tengu and Kodan as playable races.

  • http://www.facebook.com/kenneth.meagher1 Kenneth Meagher

    I wouldnt mind seeing some new races added into new content rather then bringing them out into exspansions something like Gearbox is doing with Borderlands 2. I hate to say this but the 5 races we have now are abit boring lol. Plus bringing them out early would losen up some stuff when we buy the Exspansion. no new classes just new races aka TENGU!

    • http://www.facebook.com/lee.joel1 Lee Joel

      New races or professions from a buisness POV is a much smarter thing to do with an EXP. Folks want those new toys, well pony up to dough boys n girls!

  • http://twitter.com/Zax19taken Zax19

    That’s a
    decent amount of money, although looking at it in terms of copies sold it’s “only”
    approximately 2.5 million copies. I’d be interested to see how the gem store is
    doing, I’d wager the holiday events paid off.

    • Joshua Branstetter

      The gem store has always fascinated me. I want to know if it’s really more profitable to do monthly events to sell in-game items; which ANet has been doing, or is it better to constantly pump out new products. Also is this style of F2P more profitable than ToR’s style I wonder?

  • Evilevi501

    Sweet another 3-4 days of entertainment!

    • Ruion

      Games given me 800 hours so that’s like… 33.33 days of entertainment.
       And there are plenty of people who have way more. 

      So keep spewing the haterade.

      • Joseph Legemah

        at one point, the people who are angry at the game’s success and the fact that so many like it will begin killing themselves. i’m not talking about people who don’t just like it, but the ones who hate the hear its name and the ones who get a pain as if they’ve been stabbed in the chest when they read news stories and none of them are about closure or layoffs.

        it’s a matter of time.

        • http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

          WoW has much better haters, that GW2 can dream about. 

          • balen arenas

             Is that the competition now? To see which game has the better haters?

          • http://www.facebook.com/lee.joel1 Lee Joel

            The more idiotic hate a game has the more success it will have. Success breeds resentment and jealously. Look at Man Utd in football :D

          • Joshua Branstetter

            As much as I prefer GW2, there’s no denying when it comes to people excessively hyperbolizing their disdain for a game, WoW takes the cake.

      • Evilevi501

        I was talking about for me. So grats for you, and that’s Pepsi.

    • http://twitter.com/Hagg3r Michael

      If you get 3-4 days of entertainment for 60$ it still has more value then pretty much every other 60$ game on the market.

      • Evilevi501

        If you’re into rpgs, i agree with you. Considering time used vs price most are awesome considering i usually have a hundred dollar bar tab for about 6 hours. 3-4 days for 60 bucks is pretty good :)

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/QN3MKLGGMGYEMRGDOWRPLYC5CA JoseF

     That post is from 2010 bruh

    • Joshua Branstetter

      Curses. It was in my twitter feed last night, my bad.

  • http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

    Jason should take a second look at the original article, I think there is an error. Jason implies operating profit, but the original article list sales number for the games. Looks like it a mix of two financial stats. The operating profit refers to NCsoft as a whole.  But also list sales figures for each game.   

    From the actual statement:
    “We recently visited NCsoft and came away confident that 4Q OP is likely to reach a record high of more than W100bn. Based on our conversation with the management, we estimate Guild Wars 2 sales at W118bn in 4Q (vs. W46bn in 3Q) and Lineage I sales at W63bn (vs. W38bn in 3Q). Meanwhile, we believe sales of Aion, Lineage II, and Blade & Soul are likely to remain flat QoQ. We forecast 4Q revenues to expand 51% to W275bn and OP to jump 101% QoQ to W102bn, despite a one-off expense (W15bn) related to the sponsorship of a baseball team.”

  • http://twitter.com/thavleifrim nathan law

    The first expansion for gw1 came out a year to the day later than the original with the next one following 5 months after, they have a much higher expansion pacing than other games.

    • http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

      It will be very interesting to see if they could maintain that development pace. 

      • St_Draco

        It’s funny, I seem to remember people saying the same thing about having regular monthly content updates, for free.  So far so good =)

        • http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

          We are still in the sweet spot for Guild Wars 2 development. I’m guessing there is still plenty of content started before released that is still under development.  I always assumed Arenanet had six months to a year worth of in development and further content planned.

      • http://twitter.com/thavleifrim nathan law

        they can’t maintain the 6 month cycle, part of the reason they made gw2 is as an excuse to break the 6 month expansion cycle fans had started to expect because they knew they couldn’t keep up with it.

  • Jado Cast

    I hope they do come out with more story in an expansion and open up new continents etc., but I would like to see them focus on making the existing world worth going back and exploring.  They could make some awesome world events and new quest lines that get us back in the awesome world they already created as well.

  • Sharuko

    I like the spin by a company with a vested interest in NCSoft.  NCSoft’s stock is on a free fall since the release of GW2.  Their 52 week low was this month (12/5/12) and it keeps going down.  They need some “good news” so they aren’t outright bought out by Nexon, and I am guessing that is what the expansion news is all about.

    • Jay

      Hey Sharuko, welcome back ^^ NCSoft still on your bad side? Don’t worry chum, the Tera expansion will be out soon I heard. That game is still going, right?

      • http://www.facebook.com/jonathan.hornsby.7 Jonathan Hornsby

        Going free to play, yes. Already announced for the Asian market, so it won’t be long until the same happens in the western market.

        • http://www.facebook.com/jonathan.hornsby.7 Jonathan Hornsby

          Damn I didn’t expect that fast. Just announced today; Tera free-to-play next month.

    • Spammerbam

      Just wanted to say welcome back :)

      Expansions for GW2 was already expected at launch.

  • TwoPiArrrr

    That new class announcement was from 2010.

  • http://www.facebook.com/lee.joel1 Lee Joel

    If its an expansion thats sole purpose is to wipe out the quaggan population Im 100% onboard!

  • http://www.facebook.com/jenniferann.swenson Channa Jennifer Ann Swenson

    Better leave in the QUAGGAN!!!!…… Love them >.<

  • dawolv

    Again: A semi-perminent to perminent ally that can, as you say, THINK, would make the Ranger obsolete!

    Besides, I doubt they can create an AI that qualifies for your demand. If they could the pets wouldn’t be such a mess