Will The Elder Scrolls Online Require A Subscription Fee?

Written by: (@winterinformal) | June 18, 2012 5:30 am

79 Comments

Welcome to Over/Under, where you, the GAMEBREAKER fans, get to show off your prognostic powers and see if you can outguess the staff or even the people who make games themselves!

The rules are simple: We’ll offer you a quantifiable number, or perhaps a date, and ask you to predict whether the answer will be over or under our stated value.

Then, when we know the answer — typically within a few weeks or months — we’ll make a post to let you know how you did!

Today’s question is:

Will The Elder Scrolls Online have a subscription fee or be free-to-play?

To clarify, “subscription” means any up-front purchase required, along with a monthly purchase to continue playing; “free-to-play” means no up-front purchase required, with optional microtransactions. If they do something like Guild Wars 2, we’ll call it a draw.

Although it seems like the days of subscription-fee games are numbered, there are still a few out there, especially when they’re attached to big IPs, like Star Wars: The Old Republicrecent news notwithstanding.

The Elder Scrolls isn’t quite on Star Wars‘ level, IP-wise, but even recent non-licensed games like Rift, TERA, and The Secret World are still rocking the sub model. It’s not dead yet, and if a company thinks it has a potentially huge hit on its hands, it will definitely be tempted to go this route.

  • If you think TESO will require a subscription, answer OVER in a comment below.
  • If you think TESO will be free-to-play, answer UNDER in a comment below.

We’re not sure when we’ll hear news of this, one way or the other, but we’d think it would be something a company would want to get out of the way pretty quickly, one way or the other. Stay tuned!

Will The Elder Scrolls Online Require A Subscription Fee?

  • http://twitter.com/GW2Sorel Sorel

    I see it the same way as Jason, it’s the wrong move, but they are going for the subs, OVER.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jason.jenkins.73 Jason Jenkins

    sadly i agree as well its going to be a sub game, i do however hope they go with the guild wars model and just sell the box and have no sub.

    over :(

  • Camzillasmom

    UNDER

    For two reasons:
    The TESO team seems to be quite advanced for my taste. Not only that they will release with a Mac OS X client (hurraahhh and good bye boot camp and I know WoW has that too but still, not many games out there that do OS X) but also they seem to introduce a GW2 way of gaming. Maybe already advanced?
    Advanced to me these days is FTP with microtransactions that are not ptw.

  • http://twitter.com/Chronometer2300 Chronometer

    I can’t see beyond the sub-model here, they will want to capitalize as much as possible in those initial 3 months. 

  • http://www.MasterRenny.com/ Thomas Renshaw

    My Guess Over, Sub based and then go to Free-to-play like all of them

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Thomas-Kozma-Jr/100000683276285 Thomas Kozma Jr.

    Initially i’d have to say atm Bethesda are likely telling themselves “Subscription+epic ip=bank” but odds are they will monitor over the next year how MMO’s do profit wise comparing things like Tera/Secret World earning to say GW2 and make a solid decision by then. So i’d have to at this very moment say Over but they might decide a different route in the future.

  • Isilde

    OVER…From the way they’ve introduced the game, they do seem to think they can coast on the success of their IP and deserve a subscription. However, like Jason, I wish they’d go F2P, or what would seem like a good fit for them, a GW2-style buy-to-play.

  • mcsumo

    DRAW is my bet, do I win more for that? If you only take over/under I would say over.

    • Jado Cast

      Hey no fair. I would of called that. Lol

  • Sathure

    Over

    Just by the way that it’s being marketed.

  • Revanhavoc

    Mike B has consistenly voiced my concerns as a big Elder Scrolls fan.

    From the marketing campaign to the demonstration of graphics through screenshots, to the development idea itself, there is very little in the short public history of this game that excites me.

    In keeping with that sentiment, I’m going to predict TESO will continue to disappoint me by attempting to release with a sub-based model and $60 price tag for the box.

    (Pff they are sooo yesterday…)

  • kristoffer karlsson

    I’d say over. Subscription fee and with a cash shop on top of it. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Filip-Buhov/1379207683 Filip Buhov

    all and all it’s just another TORTANIC in the wall

    • Jado Cast

      We don’t need no thought control. ;-)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=506728308 Julian F’n Mugnieco

    On the one hand, much of the online world is becoming f2p. We’ve for LoL, D3, Dust514, Dota2, and GW2 just to name a few. So there’s a trend there that TESO could grab. However, I agree with Fony here. Zinemax knows that the TES fanbase is far to big to atleast TRY to capatilize on a sub-model…

    I say over. Sub-model, with cash shop for when they inevitably go f2p 8 months after release.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Willi-Enderle/1668850948 Willi Enderle

    Over. Absolutely

  • RBHgamer

    I say under.  I think as we sit here that they are planing a sub fee, but I feel that by the time it launches, the lessons will be learned.  I think MMOs are over saturating the brand and the dinosaurs bound for extinction will continue the sub fee model.  Someone at Zenimax will probably see that. Whether the big bosses can be persuaded is the big question.

  • Laborday

    Over.

  • Rick Whitlock

    over. but you know what i would love to see? a sub based model below the $15 dollar price point. because of how the market is structured right now, if i could pay 7.99 a month instead of 14.99, i would still be supporting the developer and paying for new content, and be playing a fully featured mmo with no restrictions and feel like i was doing it on the cheap

    • Sharuko

      I agree 100%.  They need to have different payment models.  Something like:

      $15 dollars play unlimited monthly.
      $7.99 play 40 hours a month.
      $4.99 play 20 hours a month.

      I think that system would work really well. 

  • Zach Long

    Over, it will happen. Probably means I won’t be getting it.

  • http://twitter.com/cyanpill cyanpill

    Under. Atleast that is what I am hoping. if it’s over, I don’t see myself playing at all, I never played the older games due to not being mmos, and I don’t play sub games.

    I love how guildwars2 is so impressive, it’s now an answer to questions :D

  • Joshua Sant

    Under. Considering the games look kinda similar I don’t see how they’d be able to compete with GW2 if they charged a sub.

  • Blioux

    Under

  • Jado Cast

    Under.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001268512245 Stuart Serc

    Over like eve they have a dedicated fan base that will keep it that way

    • Brosaxon

       Except that dedicated fan base is the one revolting against TESO for being NOTHING like the games they know and love so I wouldn’t count on them keeping TESO from going F2P like the EVE player base has done for their own game.

      • Sharuko

        Right a few vocal fans are “revolting” because they want Skyrim coop.  Just like the Warcraft fans that still cry there isn’t a Warcraft 4.  Difference here is they are till making single player TES games.

        • Brosaxon

          *sigh*

          You know what, if I wanted to argue with a wall I’d just go ahead and do it, hell I’d probably get better thought out arguments from the wall than from you so I’m just gonna pretend I never saw your reply in my inbox.

          Good day sir.

          • Sharuko

            Thanks for the response.

          • Jay

             LOL well said, sir.

            I agree, the “Elder Scrolls” tag may actually do more harm than good in this case… Only because they strayed so far from the formula that made the franchise what it is today.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001268512245 Stuart Serc

        They dont need the whole fan base, known fact with Subs is that you dont need a massive volume of people just enough to keep costs rolling over… We are talking the initial release and at the beginning they will but again this is just my opinion only just look at TERA (free to play one day ;) (my opinion your welcome to disagree))

  • Krzysztof Kotarba

    under

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1361268513 Rick Chez Sanchez

    over for six months, then under with cash shop after 6 months

  • EndrzGame

    Over

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/John-Alvino/1094406295 John Alvino

    Over.

  • nexxe

    Over at launch
    Under post-launch
    It will hype to the heavens, then be cast down to f2p-hell by the MMO veterans.

  • Sharuko

    Over.

    People will pay a subscription for a good game.  Games don’t fail because of the pricing models, games fail because they are bad.  People just don’t realize how minimal the payment system is for the success of MMOs.

    Too many F2P games are bad for the market and there is too much saturation.  When major B2P and F2P games fail in the near future people will realize this.

    I really think the West needs to adopt the pay by hour model.

    • Jay

       Which B2P games are you referring to that you think will fail in the near future? :trollface:

      I agree and disagree with you on some points. Pricing may not solely determine a games success, but it will surely have a negative or positive impact based on the competition.

      As for pay by the hour, that’s where I agree that a model like that could work, but it would have to be dirt cheap hourly rates. After games like Tera and Swtor, people are wary about committing to a monthly fee just to have access to a game they already bought.

  • Nicolás Zuasti

    Under, seeing how much quality can be put into a f2p MMO (GW2) i cant see them justifying a monthly payment. I even see WoW changing strats (probably using something like RMAH… black market?)

  • Brosaxon

    Over, this is an Elder Scrolls game, there’s no way in hell they’ll NOT go for a sub fee no matter how terrible the game looks  or how badly receive it’s been.

    And it will be F2P in 6 months tops if not before they reach the 6 months mark.

  • http://twitter.com/kirzanSix Michael Coulombe

    Over.

    Reason: Zenimax + See how people are going NUTS over Skyrim DLC? They know TES fans new and old buy and religiously love anything TES. You can bet your buttocks they’ll milk it as much as possible.

  • gary lusk

    over…then under a couple months later. lol

  • http://www.facebook.com/davidallmighty David Cohen

    After SWTOR you have to be stupid to just think a name makes a game good. I will wait and see how things are and join the game 3-6 months after release if the games has good raids and pvp. If it is worth it I don’t mind paying the monthly fee, but again after SWTOR, I wouldn’t be shocked if they go FTP.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/WUO7JRPFS2K52LUXIY2LLJ4TSU Sean

    Over.

    How is it crazy what Guild Wars does? It’s B2P…it’s pretty much just smack dab in the middle between P2P and F2P.

  • Thomas Monahan

    If Guild Wars 2 does really well. Better then they are projecting now…..I say they might lean to a Free to Play model.

    The problem is that yes its Elder Scrolls  but from what hear who play it is they would rather have a co op version and not a MMO.

  • Noxdus

    Under. If they go with sub fees, its going to go the way of SWTOR. Huge influx of players the first few months, then it will plummet. If GW2 is hugely succesful (and it very likely will be), TESO won’t stand a chance with sub fees. 

  • http://twitter.com/ookamiwing Phillip Rushing

    Under. $60 for the box and a buy2win cash shop

  • Old Ben

    > If you think TESO will require a subscription, answer
    > OVER in a comment below. If you think TESO will be
    > free-to-play, answer UNDER in a comment below.

    Why can’t we just say “Subscription” and “F2P”…? Is this going to be counted by some automated script that can only recognize the words “over” and “under” ?

    Reminds me of those PUGs where the RL says “if you’re a healer say 1, if you’re a tank say 2″. Isn’t it much easier to distinguish the words “Healer” from “Tank” than the characters “1″ from “2″…?

  • Jay

    Anyone else think Mike B’s intro sounds like the Micro Machine commercial guy?

    If ESO has a sub, I won’t be playing it… I think it will though.

  • Jay

     In chat windows, single digit numbers stand out amongst a wall of text. So what’s your thoughts Old Ben, over or under?

    I’m in agreeance with Mike B, saying over.

  • http://twitter.com/Mxluke129 Luke Farquhar

    Its gonna be like GW2 no doubt

  • joe stallion

    I would say Neutral for B2P lol.
    They need to recoup some money back and 
    they still need  alot of people for the 3 factions PVP.
    So B2P seems to be the best mode of payment for TESO.

  • http://twitter.com/DanKevThom Daniel Thomassen

    Over

  • http://twitter.com/Mantose Leo P

    under

  • TacoBaal

     Under.

  • Viktor Svensson

    both,  mircro and sub =)

  • http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

    Over.   Some folks in my WoW guild have mentioned TESO, so they may be open to another sub game.  Some guildies were initally interested in SWTOR, but that died out because of quality, not the sub.   Not really hearing much about GW2 within my WoW guild, unless you follow the game, its a little hard to understand.

  • BigH001

    Over.
    Though I agree with Jason, they should make it f2p, but it’s most likely going to be sub based.

  • http://www.facebook.com/radamont.zeal Radamont Zeal

    OVER

    It SHOULD be B2P, buy the box, play the game.  What it WILL be, is Subscription based, buy the box, pay the sub.  It’ll be one of the last I hope that sticks with this model really.  Subs aren’t turning out to be worth it anymore.

  • Kagitaar

    Over. They will most likely launch with a sub, then flounder and drop it.

  • Akash Patel

    over, knowing Zenimax and their greed from their trademarking and junk like that.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/Z36GPOU3Q2QIQYBIDVNQAVGNGE Raul

    Draw.
    the market will be quite saturated with ftp mmos soon enough.
    they’ll sell the box, and the Major new content around the holidays.
    imho

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Ian-Smith/100000531128393 Ian Smith

    under

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Michael-Byrne/100001642673542 Michael Byrne

    Familiar topic akaMikeB! :)

    Over. It will be subbed based but I don’t think they are looking at Skyrim’s popularity and seeing WoW type numbers for their MMO and seeing massive dollar signs as MikeB does. An important thing to note here is that Zenimax is VERY Vocal about the MMO being PC only (see their FAQ) . They can’t possibly be basing projections for the number of subs off of Skyrim’s popularity since only about 14% of Skyrim’s sales were PC. XBOX 360 and PS3 accounted for 86% of Skyrim sales…that’s a HUGE percentage of the Elder Scrolls fan base that just got disqualified from the MMO….Unless Zenimax assumes they can convert the majority of their console players to PC simply based off of IP…which (in my opinion) is a foolhardy assumption to make.

    So I say it SHOULD be free to Play but I see B2P or Sub model actually being used, hence “Over”
    -Magicman

  • http://twitter.com/TuxPants Mamoru Chiba

    Under

    After the lukewarm reception to the game I think they’ll re-evaluate their approach and try something safer/fresher.

  • CCLemon77

    OVER

  • http://twitter.com/MrSunrock Sunrock

    Well I will not be able to play it if it does not have a sub free. 

  • HarmonBlues

    Interesting that we don’t see more titles come out with only a sub fee and no box price. I’m not going to invest in another MMO with a sub, but if I were it’d be nice to play a few months equaling a box price instead of that on top of a box price.

  • http://twitter.com/Master10K Master10K

    DRAW

    A new mainstream sub-based MMO simply cannot do well and it will have much less chance of succeeding, once Guild Wars 2 comes out and a larger portion of the MMO community begins to question the need for a sub.

  • http://twitter.com/Thompesen Thomas K K Pedersen

    Do people really think they will go over? Also after LOTRO and SWTOR failed with a big name in the title? Bigger than TES?
    There is a reason that they have alot of money. They know how to make money.

  • Mathew Edwards

    Draw. I don’t think the sub model is working for anyone other than Blizzard but I think if something is free you don’t value it very much. Zenimax probably know that and don’t want to degrade the Elder Scrolls brand name

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Tj-Vossos/647768691 Tj Vossos

    Draw

  • Deithrian

    o-o

  • http://www.facebook.com/nick.frost.3910 Nick Frost

    Thinking OVER.

    Hoping for UNDER.

  • seolowman

    under

  • http://www.facebook.com/jordi.geerts Jordi Geerts

    first OVER
    then, seeing that nobody likes that
    UNDER

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004223793887 Vaneryle Duece

    under
     

  • Revoltan

    We have yet to see a MMO from Zenimax/Bethesda and have no idea what they’re planning. As far as i know TESO has only been worked on for the past ()2 years (exuse me if im wrong) and Bethesda/Zenimax likes to put in quality work. For example, the time between Morrowind and Oblivion was about 2-3 years and we saw HUGE changes. Same with Oblivion to Skyrim with 4-5 years (because Fallout 3 became Bethesda’s new hit. (New Vegas was made by Obsidian… ug)) nonetheless there was a huge change with Oblivion to Skyrim. Since this will be an MMO there will be many more bugs/glitches. It is quite possible that this could be the release of swtor all over again, so imma say OVER then UNDER unless they can work ot those famous Bethesda “fall-through-the-floor” glitches

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