How Many Mists Of Pandaria Copies Will Sell In The First Day?

Written by: Jason Winter (@winterinformal) | July 30, 2012 12:15 pm

106 Comments

Welcome to this week’s installment of Over/Under, where you, the GAMEBREAKER fans, get to show off your prognostic powers and see if you can outguess the staff or even the people who make games themselves!

The rules are simple: we’ll offer you a quantifiable number, or perhaps a date, and ask you to predict whether the answer will be over or under our stated value.

Then, when we know the answer — typically within a few weeks or months — we’ll make a post to let you know how you did!

Today’s question is:

How many copies will Mists of Pandaria sell in its first 24 hours?

It’s been a tradition for Blizzard to announce their sales figures after an expansion’s been out for one day. For Burning Crusade, the number was 2.4 million; for Wrath of the Lich King, 2.8 million; and for Cataclysm, 3.3 million.

So what kind of numbers will Mists of Pandaria pull? Will it be more successful than its predecessors and set new records? Or will the overall dip in worldwide players negatively impact sales? Whatever it is, we’re betting Blizzard will find a way to brag about it.

Our Over/Under target is 3 million.

If you think MoP will sell 3 million or more copies in its first 24 hours, post OVER in a comment below.
If you think MoP will sell fewer than 3 million copies in its first 24 hours, post UNDER in a comment below.

We’ll check back with you shortly after the expansion releases on Sept. 25 to see how you did. And none of this “I’m going to pick ‘OVER’ and then buy a million copies to rig the voting” garbage, OK? Let’s keep it fair.

How Many Mists Of Pandaria Copies Will Sell In The First Day?

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http://twitter.com/Glommerwort Glommerwort

I’m voting OVER
Alan Irwin

I’m voting UNDER. I have high hopes for Guild Wars 2, and blizzard has been a failing company for the last 5 years.
http://twitter.com/MoseleyX Phil Gardner

Under
http://twitter.com/MoseleyX Phil Gardner

Under
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_JD5RIAPTFFZFIF3DCNYVVG7NIQ Kyle Bohannon

itll be interesting to say the least, im going to have to go with under however
Tenthletter1979

Under

No way will it outsell Wrath or Cata.
Spammerbam

OVER and wouldn’t be surprised.
http://www.facebook.com/jay.moonchild Jay Moonchild

UNDER If Jason says under, so will I. He’s psychic (or an Alien)!
http://twitter.com/ShortbusAssassn Shortbus Assassin

Under, 1.8 mil max.
http://www.hhportals.com/izhelara Lash

Under. And lets throw out a number for the internets hornyness; 2.3 mills!
http://www.facebook.com/tomi.turku Tomi Turku

Under, I’d say somewhere around 2.7 million.
Old Ben

The numbers for TBC and Wrath in the article are just for the Western market. Those expansions did not get a simultaneous release in China. Cataclysm is the only expansion that was released on the same day worldwide.
http://www.facebook.com/stradus.woods Stradus Woods

Under
http://twitter.com/Arvedal85 Rickard Arvedal

Under, I’d guess 2.5mil.
http://twitter.com/RustamovEldar Eldar Rustamov

Under
http://twitter.com/Iomegadrive1 Chris P

Under 1.5mil
Karizee

Under since MoP is releasing without raids.
- http://profile.yahoo.com/KHPZTPGVBYFPZSC2QLRVIYVE6M Tom
  
  They are releasing without Raids?! If thats true…yeah that will hurt their sales
  - Karizee
    
    Yup, latest Blizzard Insider posted on their home page 5 hours ago.
    - Jason Regos
      
      They are considering one week, it’s not set in stone…l2read derp. I know there will be some crazies that ding 90 in a day and a half, but people need to level.
      
      My vote is over. 3.15M
      - Karizee
        
        They sold the expac saying 3 raids at release.
        Now they are giving 1 raid a week later, maybe.
      - http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
        
        Hey there doing what the community is asking they want content to last longer, so there gating the raids by a week each so after 3 weeks all the raids will be released and the content will last longer.
Kagitaar

Over, 3.5m.
Nick Wise

4,352,652 if i win that then how the hell have i not won the lottery
jetjordan

no way it sells like cata. 2.63 mil
http://www.facebook.com/people/Filip-Buhov/1379207683 Filip Buhov

around 3.2M , probably over
DoctorOverlord

Let’s say under just for kicks.
Scsquared

over / 3.2 mil
Theyrealone

First 24h lowers than 3m
First Month or 2 for release More than Any expantion that have been before!
http://profile.yahoo.com/KHPZTPGVBYFPZSC2QLRVIYVE6M Tom

I say under 2.9 million.
I will say it will be less the CATA
http://twitter.com/WaylandX JB

Under, about 2350000
Fluffenstuffen

under 2.7-2.8 range. Not really seeing as much hype for it as we saw for cata. Probably won’t see a lot more after initial sales too. People tend to be moving away from WoW.
Krzysztof Kotarba

hard choice… imo over… ppl already hate cata, they want to move on asap.
Odeezee

Under! due to lackluster Cata xpack, large content drought, new MMOs coming out (GW2 FTW!), controversial xpack (pokemon and pandas et all)
Blioux

over
http://profile.yahoo.com/YSVAPKVBUPTX6YS3W2DLPOBNN4 AlokP

over, but probably not more than Cata. 3.1m.
MMO_Doubter

Over.

I hate gamers now.
Depravity

3.57, but they ain’t getting jackshit from me.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Bruce-Fauble/1466377126 Bruce Fauble

Over
http://profile.yahoo.com/IK3FADR7NUZ4ZMWRIC7PCYM6WA Taylor

Under, 2.5 million
http://www.facebook.com/delia.beckman Delia Beckman

OVER
http://www.facebook.com/people/Paul-Schirf/1083275070 Paul Schirf

I’m going under at 2,850,000 – and because of it I think they’ll delay the announcement… say, first 48 hours or first week numbers.
Randall_Wolfcry

UNDER! Under 500k! :O
http://twitter.com/Tholomew28 John Hennies

2,598,265
JJversion1

I would say over, but not by much. A little over 3 million, but not quite 3.1.
http://twitter.com/Noghue Noghue

Under 3 million in the first day, but by the end of the first month will sell more than Cataclysm which was about 4.7 million copies. Returning players will be hesitant to buy it but will see all the streams and how awesome the expansion is and will try it out.
http://twitter.com/inkogni Alex

seems like a bit under 3mill (2.687mill) in first 24 hours, im not going to buy it.
GUILD WARS 2 BABEEE!!! Wooo
http://www.facebook.com/nate.pyle Nathan Pyle

Over!
Matthew Oneal

under
Matthew Oneal

under 2.9
http://www.facebook.com/bothand.nether Bothand Nether

Including China:
Over
Not including China:
Under

1st Wow expansion I won’t be buying.
Shagral

MoP is first wow xpac I won’t buy, so – under
http://twitter.com/borded nathan law

over
p.s i love the comments saying “well im not buying this one so obviously under” unless you usually buy 300,000 copy’s you alone won’t make much difference.
Chris Ella

Under most definitely, I’d guess around 2.85Million, What with great free offerings (GW2), unfortunately, WoW has had it’s day.
Jason Williams

Under hands down.

FYI, the digital client has always been free in China like most other MMOs there.
Lynx Raven Raide

under. 2.77 mil
http://twitter.com/umbraetmors David Luksch

under
http://www.facebook.com/people/Justin-Case/100003772398650 Justin Case

under 2.4
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=23323284 Heather Kelsey

Over.
IARRynk

Under. Roughly 2.6
http://www.facebook.com/people/Willi-Enderle/1668850948 Willi Enderle

under
protrolly

I think it be 3.500.000 not getting myself done over 7 years and i like the look of gw2
http://twitter.com/cipero Matt Cipriano

I’m going Over.
All the pokemon stadium kids will be coming out of their bedrooms for this.
Even if it’s not that, then I’m going over simply because I want WoW to kill Swtor,at least their forum users.
http://twitter.com/KingStGreibach Greibach

Under, 2.8. I just know way more WoW players these days that have quit that may have previously bought the other versions right away.
http://www.facebook.com/malek.toumi1 Malek Toumi

under, the casual players they are targeting aren’t the kind to buy games on release day. My guess is 2.8 or less
http://www.MasterRenny.com/ Thomas Renshaw

Under 5 copies
Drunk Aholic

It will be 2.5 due to people coming back, playing for a bit and quitting. No big names to kill like Arthas or Deathwing.
- Old Ben
  
  If they made Ghostcrawler the final boss I know a lot of people who might go back just for a chance to kill him.
  - http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr
    
    let me change my number to 3,500,002. Rumor is Ghostcrawler is a raid boss or farmville boss, so lets add Old Ben to the sub list.
    - Old Ben
      
      He’s not even worth the cost of a bat and a trip to Irvine, TBH.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1262827395 Shaun Whitlock

Going for Over. I think it’ll sell 3,624,129 copies.
jaymon1579

I’m going to say Under, I know some can’t wait to get out of Cata and move on but with cata disappointment for many when it first released I think many may hold out to see reactions (that’s my plan at least so can’t speak for anyone else) and of course many other games out now.

I’m thinking this will be the first expansion that won’t out sell the previous expansion. I think they’ll be close to BC numbers of 2.4 million. Kinda difficult to say because it could be more due to many wanting to get out of Cata asap & wanting to move on.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Nae-Bodee/100002134184112 Nae Bodee

I’m going to say UNDER! Not by much though – My guess for those delicious internet points 2,892,001
http://www.facebook.com/dankozz Daniel N. Kingsolver

Under… 2.7… Not buying this one
http://www.video-game.tv/ Jaxxy

I am going to say under. I think it will be around 2.5 to 2.6/ The reason being is because I don’t see MOP drawing in any new players to WoW. Unlike many I think that there is a good number of potential MMO players, the casual players, out there who have still not played WoW. MOP is a great way to draw them into WoW but won’t.

The reason it won’t is due to the high investment it takes for a new player to come into the game. I think Q touched on this awhile back. For a new player to jump into MOP it is going to cost them $120 ($20 for the WoW Battle Chest, $20 for Lynch King, $40 for Catalyst, and $40 for MOP) just to get the game up to MOP. It is even more if they want collector editions. Then on top of that they are looking at a $15/month sub. I have friends who would love to jump into MOP who up till now have shied away from WoW, but have no plans do to this large investment.

Jaxxy
- Old Ben
  
  It’s actually cheaper than that now ($85 + subscription, IIRC), but yes, it’s still too high to get new people to just “try it”, and the free “Starter Edition” doesn’t even include access to WotLK and Cataclysm races / classes / regions.
  
  That’s in the West, of course; Asian players get the game client for free and a different subscription model (based on the time they actually spent playing), IIRC.
  - http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr
    
    Will be interesting to see if WoW 5.0.1 bring in any new players.
  - http://profile.yahoo.com/DF7GRHJSQKBEUECTZ4J26V63CQ ryan
    
    Now it does.
- http://profile.yahoo.com/DF7GRHJSQKBEUECTZ4J26V63CQ ryan
  
  I think it costs about $60 if you buy the digital version. Check blizzards website. It costs me $49.99 to upgrade from wotlk > MOP. Digital is the way to go.
http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

Over. 3,500,001 3.5m plus MikeB buying a copy at launch.

Hmmm, not sure how much D3 will hurt WoW-e sales.
The Pandaria theme will really help with WoW-east.
Pet Battle will really bring in the new blood.
Challenge mode will interest the competitive players.
New raids for the raiders.
WoW MoP CE and WoW Mop are still on top of the Amazon lists. (omg, D3 is still in the top 10)

Hey, Jason Winter, why haven’t we seen an over/under for first day Guild War 2 sales.
Voiced23

Over because mikeb is a badass and i think rooughly around 3,150,000
Sharuko

Over. (3.1 million)
http://www.facebook.com/adzaell Adam Elliott

under. just. 2.9 I think
http://www.facebook.com/zalior.denoday Zalior Denoday

Over, 4 Million, You think 6 million players are going to play without expantion
http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm

I’m only saying Under cause 3mill in 1 day is pretty big.
R C

Definitely under. Maybe 2.5 or so at best. A lot of long time players like myself are totally disgusted and tired of WOW which got broke when Ghostcrawler and Activision got their slimy hands on it.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Jeremie-Quek/714101707 Jeremie Quek

Over
http://profile.yahoo.com/RAHQ6XOIAVJHM4ZOWRAPAODRQA Michael B

Over,and Steve sounds way too much like Kermit the Frog.
http://www.facebook.com/Jre384 Jonathan Elkins

Over 3.7 million
Josh Rosenvelt

You guys need to think a bit more. MoP isn’t being released in China which is over half there subs. So it won’t be more then 4.5 million 1st off. I am guessing 2.5 million because even our local gaming stores aren’t having a midnight launch with the lack of interest in the game.

So def under!
http://www.facebook.com/thomas.aktor Thomas Aktor

It’s over (9000). Nah serious its gonna be 3.0mil
http://twitter.com/suited suited

under 3 million
garry garry

Jason is still under the “GW2 will hurt WoW” delussion. No offense J <3 but I thought 2 weeks would be enough to get over it.
Julien R

Difficult to say, now that the Chinese Panda and the Pet Battle system design to target China’s market for replacing Pokemon type games, I would say easy OVER 3m, GL blizz
http://twitter.com/slyice777 sylvi

under
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_BDJELSF2DASHWP4AXTYNI4D5GE Army Navy

Under. 2.2 million.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QGR5HVMLBPAML4T3YBXZTX4EZY Jeff L

Under. Not getting the game. After getting burned by Diablo 3, I will never buy another Blizzard game again.
http://www.facebook.com/SimUser Jason J Lewis

Under, but not by much, around 2.95
http://www.facebook.com/mostafa.h.abaza Mostafa Hussein Abaza

under
Arthur Castelo Branco

under
Andrew Wright

under
http://www.facebook.com/people/JohnPaul-Sein/1563575577 JohnPaul Sein

i hope it goes negative… WoW is an old game with nothing new.. whenever there is a new expansion… like the last horrid one its one or two raids that are different then the entire server just focuses on end game content… you make a new character just to power level the guy and if you dont you are hounded by other to do so so that you can do arenas, pvp or raiding… the mentality will not change once this expac comes out. a new island two or three raids which the first two will be forgotten completely once the last one is up an running… the formula for some of blizzard’s wow game is polished but the rest… welll you cant polish a terd.. lol i laugh at the fact of the pet battle system.. i remember when this game was a serious contender.. its just now the nintendo wii of mmo’s only catered to children…
Brian Dawe

They just change stuff in wow for the sake of changing stuff been going downhill ever since tbc ah well they’re not getting any more money from me for this expansion the ast one was rubbish this is my vote with my money and blizzard aren’t getting it. They’ve messed up all the good bit’s in wow every thing that was unique about a class is now shared accross several classes it’s just dull now. Let’s hope that they all decide to retire and count their cash and stop boring us with mor elame expansions.

Oh and Under
FpsSasha

Yeah, since blizz didn’t proudly announce their sales recently, one day after the release of the game (like they prob did with cata and diablo 3) , it probably didn’t beat any sales records, let alone reach 1 million copies sold on it’s first day based on the reduced subscriber base, hate towards the expansion having similarities to kung fu panda (let alone having pandas in the game), and pre-order sales that were much lower than cata’s. I think that cata’s were about 600,000 and mop’s were 150,000. And I know that Warcraft 3 had pandas first but some people obviously don’t think so. Just a thought.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000782851938 Ashlee Clemons

Under…..i hope the sales are so bad the game just goes away for good
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000050457544 Robert Ramljak

OVERabout 3.5 mil

How Many Mists Of Pandaria Copies Will Sell In The First Day?

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