Predict World Of Warcraft's Player Numbers

Written by: Jason Winter (@winterinformal) | October 15, 2012 7:30 am

85 Comments

Welcome to this week’s installment of Over/Under, where you, the GAMEBREAKER fans, get to show off your prognostic powers and see if you can outguess the staff or even the people who make games themselves!

The rules are simple: we’ll offer you a quantifiable number, or perhaps a date, and ask you to predict whether the answer will be over or under our stated value.

Then, when we know the answer — typically within a few weeks or months — we’ll make a post to let you know how you did!

Today’s question is:

What will the subscriber count be for World of Warcraft at the next Activision Blizzard investor call at the end of October/early November?

It’s a quarterly tradition, so get your prognosticating muscles going!

A recent press release, issued just a week after Mists of Pandaria‘s launch, touted “over 10 million” subs, a sharp increase from the 9.1 million from August’s call, though the figure stood at 10.2 million around the start of the year.

Will that upward trend continue? Or will the “official” numbers dip back down below eight figures?

Our Over/Under target is 10 million.

If you think WoW will have 10 million or more subscribers, post OVER in a comment below.
If you think WoW will have less than 10 million subscribers, post UNDER in a comment below.

And let us know why you thought the way you did! See you next month!

Predict World Of Warcraft's Player Numbers

World of Warcraft

Patch 5.3 Release Date Confirmed

Patch 5.3 Release Date Is Confirmed By Blizzard on TwitterRead more »

68 comments
4:06

World of Warcraft

Patch 5.3: Purely Pandaria Profession Leveling!

The latest Patch 5.3 PTR build is up, and has brought some fairly major changes to the leveling process of Mining and Herbalism. Read more »

25 comments
9:55

World of Warcraft

Preparing for Patch 5.3

Patch 5.3 is coming and Blizzard have created a guide to the changes!Read more »

8 comments

kekoo

At the end of October/November is where many people’s annual pass expire, so the number isn’t fair untill we hit December…

So yeah, the number will be over 10 Million.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003466951441 에반스

OVER
Every expansion has a subscriber drop after release, but I think the numbers pulled for the investor call will be too close to MoP’s release to reflect that. Also, depending on when they count the subscribers, all of the annual-pass people may still be there. I know I’m still waiting on mine to be up so I can unsub.
- http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr
  
  Nope, TBC had steady growth throughout its run.
  - http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003466951441 에반스
    
    ah you’re right. my bad
Jediwolf

The numbers will be cooked regardless because there are a lot of people like myself who want to unsub but cannot because we agreed to the annual pass last october. That unsub button is greyed out in your accounts until that pass runs out. So even though im actively playin GW2 and couldnt give a stuff about Pandaria Im still an official subscriber to WoW and even though its my own fault it feels like its against my will. Roll on end of Oct. There is no doubt all those waiting for the pass to pass will be included in the Q3 call along with all the free trials and so on. Would be nice to know the true figures. Im going OVER because of the hypetrain still gaining steam and all the cooked figures backing it up but in all honestly take away the annual pass, free trails and unplayed still subbed accounts and itd be much much lower.
- http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr
  
  Have to figure some of the annual pass holders will unsub after their commitment expires. But, that’s at the end of October so they will not hit the books until after the quarterly count.
  
  Free trials do not count! That was one of the numerous errors Pockket made during a TWIMMO a few weeks ago.
  
  Blizzard is public about how they count their numbers and the last press release stated they sub growth in all major regions.
  
  World of Warcraft’s Subscriber Definition
  
  “World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.”
  - Jediwolf
    
    thanks for the clarification. good research.
Iskren Yordanov

UNDER
http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

OVER. China
- Deathstar2x
  
  UNDER. China
  
  (That’s like saying the cowboy expansion would bring more American subscribers.)
http://www.facebook.com/chrisboggs83 Chris Boggs

WTF is Gary wearing…

OVER
- http://www.facebook.com/jonathan.ericson.39 Jonathan Ericson
  
  It’s called a sweater.
  - DoctorOverlord
    
    A Mister Rogers sweater with a T-shirt under it.
    
    Look out 5th Avenue, Mr. Gary Gannon is setting the new fashion trend! Actually it’s fun to see what’s Gary’s sporting sometimes
http://www.facebook.com/people/Scott-Thompson/813179837 Scott Thompson

I think it will be over. However I agree with some previous posters on the annual pass factor. I am going to be interested to see where the numbers are after Q4 and the significant chunk of those expire.
http://www.facebook.com/jason.jenkins.73 Jason Jenkins

over

with my guess being 10.7 million as the number they will give
http://twitter.com/Bobrot R. C.

Over
Tom Hayward

Over. MoP is a fantastic expansion, most fun since LK.
http://www.facebook.com/miljan.stanojevic.503 Miljan Stanojevic

UNDER!
http://www.facebook.com/people/Hamad-Ali-Al-Jalahma/512893526 Hamad Ali Al-Jalahma

Over
10.5 million – guessing xD
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1314061810 Froggy Ford

OVER
http://www.facebook.com/jonathan.ericson.39 Jonathan Ericson

Over.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_JD5RIAPTFFZFIF3DCNYVVG7NIQ Kyle Bohannon

they released MoP at a good time. things are still new, the gated content will keep people subbed so id have to go with over. quite possibly might even hit the 11 mil mark again.

i hope they learned their lesson with the stagnant content in cata and fulfill their promise of faster content, if they do i think its quite possible that they could easily get back the 2 mil they lost during cata. however if they dont keep their word i can also see another steady decline
http://profile.yahoo.com/4UDLBCLTHKU7L5PAT3YZT6GY4E Anthony

over cause its very good
http://twitter.com/Aminorat Aminorat

over 10.1
under 10.3
Jant0n

Under.
http://twitter.com/Deadalon Deadalon

It will be under. I played it and there are so many issues with the game atm. Bugged quests – bad rep grinding and daylies. Raids are just not intresting anymore. Just pile in endless amount of dmg and force the gating to be based on healiers. Just bad all around.

Wont be subscribing for another month.

The million subs lost in Cata was because of 4.1. We are still 3 months away from november and I think BLizzard will not be able to deliver regulare and fequent updates this time – any more than ever before.
DoctorOverlord

Under. Because it would make the panda cry.

Actually I would view that result as a shifting in the MMO market as WoW players explore the wider variety of MMO games which are now available. I think would be healthy for the genre as a whole.
http://www.facebook.com/inkogni.alex Inkogni Alex

UNDER, my annual pass ends in 10days (i think) and so is the same for MANY others that got tricked into “free D3″, not going to renew my sub IM PLAYING GW2 ( Go Tripple-B GO )
who here feels the same? if you do go like your cat
- http://twitter.com/Deadalon Deadalon
  
  I feel the same – I was annual pass subscriber and the ONLY thing keeping me atm is the fact that I am UNABLE to unsub until AFTER the 22nd to try to force ppl to sub for the 13th month. I finally was able to get a gm to add 3 free days to my playing account so I actually had a chance to unsub before the next month rolled over.
  
  But this is what BLizzard has become. Really low lvl of custimor support – all built to cheat more money out of players.
- Svenskalkoholkultur
  
  What do you do as a level 80? Ohh that’s right, nothing!
  I believe most players will continue, even QQers like you.
- http://www.facebook.com/inkogni.alex Inkogni Alex
  
  @Svenskalkoholkultur:disqus crafting my legendary, exploring the world, dungeons, crafting, jumping puzzles, world events…
  and where was the part that i QQ?
St_Draco

Over

This is due to a number of factors. First, it has to due with MoP still being in the launch phase, i.e. first month of the expansion release. Anyone who has checked out MoP will have to sub for a month. Second, Blizzard counts “Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers”. Again, that means anyone who is not in a “sub” based market that wants to check out the new changes in WoW must log on and will be counted as a sub, even if they logged only 30 sec. Third, Blizzard is gating content in a way that forces people to draw out their experience. We saw Heroic Raids cleared within 2 days of content release, but those players were forced to wait 3 weeks before attempting it. We have yet to see the raids for this full tier be activated and this will keep raiding guilds sub’d to the game until all 5.0/5.1 content is available. Next, there are those hardcore players who mad “refer a friend” accounts, in order to quickly level alts. This is likely a smallish number, although according to WoW progress there are 900,000 lvl 90 characters spread across 835,000 unique accounts. This can give something of an idea of where this number at. And finally, there are the Annual Pass subscribers who will still be counted regardless of them having ever logged in or played within the last month, although I suspect there is only a small number of AP subs that are not currently playing WoW.

All that being said, for the WoW Fanboys out there, I am a WoW subscriber. I’ve enjoyed MoP thus far. I can honestly say it has been the best questing experience I have ever had in WoW (but I have had better experiences in other games). For an 8 year old game it is still good, but it is showing its age.
http://www.facebook.com/mark.bradden.1 Mark Bradden

i’m going with under 10 million has st_draco said annual pass will be counted and i am one of them that waiting till 26th october to unsub
Wolfdreamer101

UNDER

MoP was enough to keep the sub’s steady, but not enough to make the population grow. Only way they could be above 10mil right now is if they got more new players to start, and it just doesn’t feel like there’s a lot of fresh blood in the mix yet.
http://www.facebook.com/rasmus.nielsen.75491 Rasmus Nielsen

Over, but BARELY
Krzysztof Kotarba

MoP players UNDER, blizz didn’t even sell 10 million “pandas”
- http://twitter.com/cipero Matt Cipriano
  
  Does anyone else notice how ridiculous this statement is? Blizz didn’t even sell 10 million pandas…lol as if 10 million is a small number.
http://www.facebook.com/andy.schott Andy Schott

I often wear my underwear OVER my pants quailman style
http://www.facebook.com/nick.duncan.37 Nick Duncan

Under
http://www.facebook.com/charner Charner Boney

I’m gonna say 11 mil
http://www.facebook.com/people/Robert-Detyens/1344019431 Robert Detyens

Over
Pandas will attract more casual players.
- http://twitter.com/Deadalon Deadalon
  
  No thats where you are wrong. Casual players are litterally forced to log in every single day to do daily quests. And there are tons of them or you wont get your Valor gear. 1-2 hours per day is not casual content. 1-2 hours per week is casual number….
  - http://www.facebook.com/rencion1337 Michael Vergara
    
    except if your a casual player chances are your not going to do normal mode raiding in which case you would never have to do a single daily
http://www.facebook.com/johelgo Johan Helgø

Under
http://www.facebook.com/wes.whitacre.3 Wes Whitacre

Under.

9,781,925. Exactly.

Period.

.
http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm

This time Over
EndrzGame

Under
Omegahty

Over
Tim Whitehead

Not sure I even care what the numbers are as I am having so much fun playing Mists of Pandaria.
http://www.facebook.com/ivan.garciaprats Ivan Garcia Prats

Over 10 millions, under GW2 quality
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=515439832 Jonathan Liscombe

Over, WoW-e-mon (Pet battle system) will bring some new and old players back.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=627845789 Joel Colby Debord

over
http://twitter.com/Iomegadrive1 Chris P

Definitely under. Those annual passes will be expiring. People are trying their hardest to say MoP is amazing but those starting reviews say otherwise. Many players can’t take the lack of true action combat, and people are wising up to how outdated WoW in general is. Rift may also be taking a chunk out of their subs as well.
- http://www.facebook.com/rencion1337 Michael Vergara
  
  i disagree i definitely say over. my annual pass has already expired and i will most definitely be staying for MoP
- Joop Zoetemelk
  
  I say over. But think they’ll lose me after my annuall pass. The world looks wonderfull and enjoyed the questing. I simpy HATE dailys and since there is no other way of progression anymore it’s the end of WoW for me. Hope that Titan comes soon. With 10 mil.+ player base I don’t think that will happan any time soon.
Spammerbam

I would say Over.

People will always come back to WoW; many players have so much history with this game. We’ll start to see a slight decline after 3-4 months, but who knows.
http://profile.yahoo.com/WZ324KCWGCMJENR2ZFFTCK3QP4 Blaze

Over.. all my guild mates quit cata.. I didn’t play for over 4 months.. My guild was dead when i came back and now around 17 people have returned to the game.. This expansion is best by far content wise.. We are all itching to get back to having fun.. Its not Pandas that make the game fun its the fun times running weekly raids and joking around on vent that keep us coming back..
Kagitaar

I’m going with Over, it’d be quite hard right now to complain that there is nothing to do.
crothcipt

I will have to say over. I am more interested if they beat cata.’s first mo. of expansion sales.
http://www.facebook.com/people/John-Sardella/1422784105 John Sardella

I would say Under as well. All mmo’s and expansions launch with new content, and tons of people burn through this content like crazy. I’m expecting a high 9.7-8 million but not over 10. Already had a few friends say that the new content was fun, but it’s starting to feel like the same WoW again.
- Chris_Angelsptouch
  
  I agree. Under.
  
  Blizz gave everyone who went to virtual blizzcon a free pass to play the beta for MoP. The fact is most people who have already played in the beta know it only takes a couple days to burn through to 90 on their 85′s, and once you get your panda off the island… you go back to your original capital starter zones. So yes, it was fun at first, but yes it does feel like the same old WoW again.
  
  I was a vanilla gamer, I stuck it out through thick and thin for years. Now however, all of my long time friends and all the old school players are leaving. There were changes that left a lot of people disappointed to say the least. MoP of course it sold a lot. It will die off though. Once it loses it’s luster, which won’t take long, the hype will die, and so will the fan base and the subscribers. Without them, WoW can’t grow like it did. None of the original years subscribers, up to and including Cata beginners, will recruit anymore. They’re bored. The new patch they’re talking about is a desperate attempt to keep players. We keep hoping, but hope is fading fast.
  
  I tell you as a player, a long time WoW fan. So I think I have a better idea, than those who have never played it.
- Chris_Angelsptouch
  
  Under. I’ll tell you why.
  
  I have been a long time WoW subscriber. I played since the original launch 8 years ago. Blizzard let everyone who went to virtual Blizzcon into the beta for MoP. I was one of them. People who played the beta know how short a time it takes level up. Only a couple of days, depending how much time you actually sit to play. The new content with the pandas only lasts a very short time then yes, it goes back to the same old WoW.
  
  I did not purchase MoP. I have found many of the players who came from the beginning and some up to and including the beginners from the Cataclysm expansion, either will not come back at all, or are only giving Blizzard 1 more chance. Blizzard tried something called “refer a friend” it was a recruiting tool for them. We invited our friends to play until a certain level and Blizzard hoped it would be enough to make the actually subscribe. Without that, they’re going to lose a lot of potential growth. This is going to hurt the actual number of players we see right now. If you remember, before MoP released in Sept., the number began to fall off in greater numbers. Over a million as I recall. This is likely to happen again, once the luster of MoP has worn off. I give it until January or Feb next year, if not before, we’ll see this again.
http://twitter.com/j0nnara Jonnara

The players will finish all the content and un-sub again.
Under.
- http://twitter.com/cipero Matt Cipriano
  
  you realize there’s like 2 or 3 more raids in the first tier that haven’t even been released yet.
  - http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr
    
    There does seem to be a part of the player base that subs to WoW for about four months out of the year. They buy a 60 day game card in the summer and winter and allow the content to build while they are unsubbed.
    
    It would be interesting to know how many players purchased Mists/game card and will purchase a new gametime card over the winter holidays.
David Mann

Under as I stopped playing WoW last week!
Hetjuklúbburinn WoW

Over
http://twitter.com/cipero Matt Cipriano

over.

I think this expansion is amazing. and I was very pessimistic going into it.
Jop Mulder

Over
http://www.facebook.com/shann.atkinson.7 Shann Atkinson

OVER!!!!!!!
http://twitter.com/Rin_Lunasong Amy Dooley

Over, 11.1m is my guess.
joe stallion

Under 10 million.
William Wickberg

over
IrishBrewed

Under.
Alan Lee

over
http://twitter.com/thavleifrim nathan law

over, not by much but over. we already know they broke 10 million when mop came out and i think the falloff will be much slower with mop than with cata.
http://www.facebook.com/JoeKey Joe Key

Hoping its over. I have really enjoyed this expansion so far, even if theres a lot of daily quest grinding. I like that I haven’t seen any “Panda hate” posts on various forums around the web when it had been flooded with them before hand. Seems like some people finally calmed down and said, “Oh, this isn’t a Kung Fu Panda rip off after all.”
http://twitter.com/Latinkuro Latinkuro

under 9 million
http://twitter.com/3DarkSecrets Shush

under
http://www.facebook.com/people/Laurence-Hill/774089893 Laurence Hill

Over definatly
Revanhavoc

Gary is dressed like the true leader of the Gannonites.

I think over, Jason, due to the “Panda Bounce”.

(You can quote him on that in the show if you want when it comes back as over!)
http://www.facebook.com/Phiktional Matthew Swaney

Over
http://twitter.com/Roseland1985 Christopher

over
http://twitter.com/nyokosilent Jessica

Under
http://www.facebook.com/jonathon.simon.3 Jonathon Simon

way under

Patch 5.3 Release Date Confirmed

Patch 5.3: Purely Pandaria Profession Leveling!

Preparing for Patch 5.3

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Sign in to your account