Predict World Of Warcraft's Subscription Numbers

Written by: Jason Winter (@winterinformal) | June 11, 2012 5:30 am

156 Comments

Welcome to Over/Under, where you, the GAMEBREAKER fans, get to show off your prognostic powers and see if you can outguess the staff or even the people who make games themselves!

The rules are simple: We’ll offer you a quantifiable number, or perhaps a date, and ask you to predict whether the answer will be over or under our stated value.

Then, when we know the answer — typically within a few weeks or months — we’ll make a post to let you know how you did!

Today’s question is:

How many subs will Blizzard announce for World of Warcraft at its next earnings call?

It’s been a steady, but slowing, trend for WoW to lose subscribers over the past couple years, down from a height of 12 million to its most recent total of 10 million.

It would make sense to expect the downward trend to continue — but by how much? Will WoW hold pretty much steady? Or will it start to dive off a cliff, especially with a bunch of new games out, or coming out soon?

The Over/Under target number for World of Warcraft subs is: 9.7 million

If you think WoW will report more than 9.7 million subscriptions at its next earnings call, answer OVER in a comment below.
If you think WoW will report 9.7 million or fewer subscriptions at its next earnings call, answer UNDER in a comment below.

The last earnings call took place in early May, so expect to hear news on this in early August or so. Don’t worry, you’ve got plenty of time.

Predict World Of Warcraft's Subscription Numbers

World of Warcraft

Patch 5.3 Release Date Confirmed

Patch 5.3 Release Date Is Confirmed By Blizzard on TwitterRead more »

66 comments
4:06

World of Warcraft

Patch 5.3: Purely Pandaria Profession Leveling!

The latest Patch 5.3 PTR build is up, and has brought some fairly major changes to the leveling process of Mining and Herbalism. Read more »

25 comments
9:55

World of Warcraft

Preparing for Patch 5.3

Patch 5.3 is coming and Blizzard have created a guide to the changes!Read more »

8 comments

http://www.facebook.com/Fabioo.Paulino Fábio Paulino

Under.
So many good games incoming (for me Guild Wars 2, but Tera and another games that are making casual gamers playing MMO).
http://twitter.com/viion Josh Freeman

UNDER
http://twitter.com/Bahska Bahska

Over
randoranderson

OVER
http://www.facebook.com/nik666 Nikolai Tzolev

Under, at least until MoP goes out.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Joe-Christy/832088811 Joe Christy

Under, but maybe not for long, during winter it will probably pick back up. All the releases, (hopefully GW 2) of new MMOs and other games would take away maybe some subs until people get bored and cave in the winter to go back to WoW.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=769188934 Asim Datye

UNDER. GW2 is comin’.
http://www.facebook.com/eric.p.stegman Eric Pieter Stegman

under unless they release mop by next quarter
Comohawk

Under. Why? I just cancelled my sub. Allready minus one.
http://twitter.com/EdwardvanRaak Edward van Raak

Under

But just slightly.

The WoW fanbase will stay loyal to Blizzard no matter what. I think the
game always has a constant stream of new players simply because of it’s
sheer size and marketing, so it will never drop subs that fast.

So far, other MMO’s barely made a dent to WoW subs, therefore GW2 and
Tera will not change the numbers that much. However the age of WoW is
starting to show, and people are getting more and more tired of the
game. I think a decent drop of around 400k is inevitable. MoP will boost it up again, but only temporarily.
Comohawk

Under. Why? I just cancelled my sub. Allready minus one.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Florin-Nicutari/100000601387212 Florin Nicutari

1 year term, will reach 4-5 Mil. WoW is getting way to old. The reason for this is that there have been no major revamps of the MMO’s (particular WoW). And what needs to be done is a complete reinvent of MMO itself. Something else than mythical creatures and monster, or the very stiff let’s say EVE, once you get inside an MMO you need to feel like your actually achieving something. Not not just killing 10 ppl and gathering 10 herbs. The ideal will be that you will be part of a guild that will build and lead a Starship or Your own castle. And those things should be visually visible for everyone. As for when your guild disbands, the castle will be in ruin, but still standing, and with the possibility of being rebuild by another guild, or who has the money to purchase it from the “server” But to think very well since to run a big castle you need a lot of people with skills. You will never find loot from NPC’s but instead you build yourself everything. Same thing should apply to a drifting starship, and if you don’t have a minimum number of required people to run your castle or ship then will slowly decay itself.

This is an excellent example (if not ideal) of what an MMO should be in the future.
- snikendelarveføtter
  
  cool story bro
- http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
  
  All i see is jibberish,, China isn’t the majority it may have more subs than US & EU, but those 2 together are the majority.
Camzillasmom

I just watched the video and asked myself why people still want to play the same old dull content of WoW? That and GW2 is coming. With that less chinese farmers as well. So definitely under.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Florin-Nicutari/100000601387212 Florin Nicutari

@ Edward van Raak WoW, will only go down from now, in all honesty what is keeping the game to such high numbers is the social aspects, not the game itself. We all know that. Without the social part the game would probably be around 2 mil (if you take out the Chinese)
- http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
  
  so your stating US & EU together only = 2 mill, oh cmon thats obvious trolling US & EU together atleast have 6.8 mill. Theres never Low pop servers unless its in the middle of the night or morning. Yes the social aspects is the best, but the reason the game has such high numbers cause it still very popular around the world and that wont change anytime soon.
  - http://www.facebook.com/people/Florin-Nicutari/100000601387212 Florin Nicutari
    
    No, Europe and US have about 5 mil, the rest is only Chinese. But in my opinion wow will dramatically lose subs in the next 1 year, since is to old. Not because of other game. If you have been following news Activision is for sale (aka Blizz too) so if they think now is the moment to sell, they know something.
    - http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
      
      The stock is just for sale the companies are perfectly fine, its Parent company that is having money trouble and its stock dropped while Activision Blizzard’s has risen Activision Blizzard should buy that stock and become there own Mega company and No Europe & US have 6.8 Mill together each region has over 3 mill each.
http://twitter.com/inkogni Alex

under, other games are there and new are coming with more attractive sub plan. free to play or just buy the box ( Gary! Throw the damn BOX )
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1108105277 Kenneth Leo Hansen

Well i guess over , might be a chane that some PPL return when we get abit closer to MOP and want to prepare.
http://twitter.com/23Irrell Irrell

UNDER:

I call it at 9.3 million
http://www.facebook.com/people/Kevin-Raymond-Macduff/660827451 Kevin Raymond Macduff

9.-7 mill or fewer but knowing blizzard they will fudge their numbers to make it either the same or over
Dennis Schmidt

Over. My money is that 5.0 will be live before the next numbers announcement with MOP to follow shortly after.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Hamad-Ali-Al-Jalahma/512893526 Hamad Ali Al-Jalahma

Over
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1829649295 Daniel Boruch

Under. Why? Because GW2 is coming!
Joshua Sant

Gotta say… over. I’d definitely guess under for next year but don’t know if they could lose that many subs in two months.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Liam-Walsh/100000735499497 Liam Walsh

Over i see mist release date been announced pretty soon which will boost subs abit
midx

under, There is nothing left to do in wow until 5.0, most people have finished all the content.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1103680651 Dave Jeannotte

Under. This time period that will reflect the last quarter had zero (as far as I know… quit playing months ago) new content added. I imagine it will continue to go down until MoP comes out.
Darth_Matter

Under
http://www.facebook.com/people/John-Alvino/1094406295 John Alvino

Under
http://www.facebook.com/people/Matt-Casagrande/654077832 Matt Casagrande

under
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000782522235 Cliff Price

Under.
http://www.facebook.com/jason.jenkins.73 Jason Jenkins

at the earnings call i’m going to say under with it jumping back to over 10 million with the earnings call after it
Sharuko

Lower.

But it will hover around 10 million for a while. Really depends on what happens in Asia as the majority of subs are from there. According to MMO-Champion they recently merged and closed several servers in Korea and China.
http://www.facebook.com/kesidis.panagiotis Kesidis Panagiotis

under !
http://twitter.com/Vampirspiegelei Vampirspiegelei

Under

and Under² after GW2 is out :p
http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm

Over, I find it funny how pple say under, The game is still great and pple will always be playing and people will be getting back in to get ready for the new expansion. The Declining is over and only rising subs will be seen . Also GW2 will do nothing, pple to nieve thinking every mmo will hurt WoW. except Sharuko he alteast gave a vaild point.
- Arkanthos
  
  Im not saying GW2 will hurt WoW and frankly i don’t care, but saying Sharuko has valid points, is like saying the sun circles around earth and not the other way around.
- http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1185768722 Matthew Jameson Tyree
  
  GW2 might hurt the OLD player base of wow, Ever been in Vodka since vanilla wow? Most of the old player base is pretty burnt out as a whole, The pandas had a tiny part in warcraft III which was very much a joke, Kinda like the cow level in diablo 2, But It shows “kung fu panda” so its child friendly and they need to refresh their player base.
  
  GW2 breaks the Trinity and its not a pay per month, So its very refreshing and new, plus the graphics are insanely immersion compared to every other MMO that has came out.
  
  TORtanic failed because they dropped their High definition everything to gain more player base, but also failed to include a way to reactive the same visual quality in the settings.
  also the classes weren’t thought out well enough, Healing in TORtanic was terribly stupid, animations are horrid. Just seemed rushed.
  
  Star Trek online was destined to fail. They had “healer” “tanker” “Dps” ships classes/roles, It was insanely stupid. If Star Trek online would have adopted Eve online’s Style of play it would have been about 100 times better.
  
  GW2 is the next gen MMO, and if you haven’t played the beta you are missing out, Its no longer the tank/healers fault when someone dies, its solely the person playing the character. The Server/PVP system is insanely well thought out compared to WoW’s Battle group.( Kil Jaden was in the number 1 battle group for NA)
  Server vs Server PVP unites your entire server to one cause, so its not faction based, I’ve seen plenty of servers where horde/alliance out numbered each other 5/1.
  
  I played on Kil Jaden which at the time was number 3 out of all the servers on the NA side, and I was in one of the 12 ranked guild on that server, I was a hardcore gamer
  
  GW2 from my perspective may not kill WoW, but I know it will have a Very strong player base compared to Every other “wow killer” that has came out this far.
http://twitter.com/Justin_Rinker Justin Rinker

Under
http://twitter.com/ookamiwing Phillip Rushing

Over. Only due to MoP being released. The earnings called after MoP will be way under.
http://www.youtube.com/user/cpjontek?feature=mhee cpjontek

Hard to say really. I think it will depend on when MoP is released and when GW2 is released. If MoP doesn’t release till after the earnings call then I think it will be lower. Also, if GW2 comes out before the earnings call I’d have to say lower again. But if MoP comes out before the earnings call AND GW2 still hasn’t released, then I think it will be over. How’s that for an answer? =P
http://twitter.com/Gearonk13 Chad Adamchick

Over

I think most people that want to leave have left, the rest will stay. Plus the Annual Pass Subscribers that may have quit, don’t show up in lost subs until their pass runs out. It is really hard too say though with such a wide and diverse sub base. Also Blizzard is really good at offering promotions that suck people back in.
Joey Biggs

Under
http://www.facebook.com/people/Don-Zettel/1356208336 Don Zettel

Over, MoP release date will be out at least if not released yet and they will get a bump from that.
http://twitter.com/XCoastGaming CrossCoastGaming

9,934,6211 Based purely on the fact that even I have had the urge to re-up my sub lately. I haven’t re-subbed but still I think there’s enough people, weaker willed then myself, returning that it will mitigate the number of those who are leaving.
http://www.facebook.com/edgarjmartins Edgar Martins

Over.

Years after years of the so called “WoW killer” only manage to kill the previous “WoW killer” why people insist on this?

Sure WoW will lose subscribers but after some time they will come back. Blizzard will make some pet or mount to make up the losses.

What about Rift and SWTOR? Why people never talk about who leave old “WoW killer” to try a new one? I’m sure that people who have a history of “jumping” from MMO to MMO not being attached to the chars left behind will have a better chance to try and stay on GW2 until a new game comes out.
Tom Hayward

Assuming MOP doesn’t hit until after August, I think it’ll go slightly under, but MOP will definitely drive subs back above 10 million easily.
- http://www.facebook.com/LostLunE James Hernandez
  
  last 4 releases have all been november…
  and they said no content patches untill mop…
  - http://www.facebook.com/people/Michael-Johnson/1353890372 Michael Johnson
    
    Blizzard isn’t dumb enough to make people wait 10 months on the same content
DoctorOverlord

Under. Because I hate pandas.

Okay not really, just bipedal ones that just a human figure with an animal head stuck on it.
- http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr
  
  Come on back. You are going to love killing Pandarian players. I kinda cheer for the Hosen, they give the Pandas a really hard time.
Andrew Ehler

Over. MoP is a great expansion and it will bring people back who quit after the disaster that was Cataclysm.
- http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr
  
  It really is amazing Blizzard hasnt lost more players due to Cataclysm.
http://www.facebook.com/LostLunE James Hernandez

OVER… here is me hopeing and latching on to the sinking ship not wanting to let go …
where is my titan ?
Blioux

Over
Karizee

Under, I cancelled 2 subs
Karizee

Under, I cancelled 2 subs
http://twitter.com/ron6405 mouse

i will say under since some of my guildy left :S
Key Foster

I think over. Because WOW is very good at keeping that invisible ball and chain attached and locked. LOL
http://twitter.com/TuxPants Mamoru Chiba

Over. I don’t see what else people would be playing. I doubt a lot of people are canceling their subs for GW2, a game that isn’t out yet.
ruudik niitmets

under, same old sameold, getting old. they never think up anything unique anymore, the asian theme is so played in all mmo’s its so dull.

after annual pass is over, my sub will cancel, and im sure many do same.
http://twitter.com/Virg_Ilio Virg_Ilio

Under, me and a bunch of friends unsubbed last month. The tendency is only to go down.
- http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr
  
  I think they will still count as subs for this quarter.
Revanhavoc

In Finance they say the trend is your friend – so I will say that WoW has reached it’s maximum penetration (that’s what she said, Revan) nice one havoc, and the downtrend has already begun, leading me to conclude ‘under’.
http://www.facebook.com/hobgobby Chris Cruce

Over since from personal experience everyone I know that went to SWTOR came back and everyone that went to TERA is back already.
Men_In_Tights_Too

Only just under i think- many people are waiting to see what emerges next year from Blizzard regarding Titan and hoping to get that game at a reduced cost if they stay with WOW. If however Titan is just a 40k clone with the same old WOW gameplay but in space, then you will see how many pandas jump ship .O.o
Draugmahl

Reality? Far under…reported? Probably slightly over.
http://www.facebook.com/mike.keber Michael Keber

Under.
Florian Dors

Lower
http://www.facebook.com/harold.jones.9847 Harold Jones

Under, WOW is in it declining years like all Game, Unless Blizzered do’s a masivly up grade on is it’s grafics, and it will continue to drop.
http://twitter.com/Jacobite51 David Jacobs

I think under
http://twitter.com/SouthJaxBeach SouthJaxBeach

Under. But with Universal Sub coming it wont matter.
http://twitter.com/thereverendpuck Reverend Puck

Over, and they’ll thank Diablo for it.
QSatu

Over. GW2 won’t be released by then and I doubt any other mmo by next earnings call will be able to steal any significant number.
http://twitter.com/justQQing Brian Day

under
http://profile.yahoo.com/SMGRLFM4UASOO7QO26HTHBLIOI Shawn

Below…

For obvious reasons..MOP is for Kiddies and the game is just gonna flop.
- http://www.facebook.com/people/Michael-Johnson/1353890372 Michael Johnson
  
  You’re delusional
Joseph Gabrielli

under. People aren’t leaving for a new game and Gary dosen’t understand that, PEOPLE ARE LEAVING FOREVER… like i did
http://twitter.com/dularr Dularr

Over. My guild had a big influx of members who resubscribed through the scroll of resurrection. Many players returning from SWTOR and Tera. Alot of these players raided DS for a few weeks and then let their sub re-expire, but that probably counts. They might come back again, once MoP is released.

Still seeing alot of Real ID friends in D3. Its gone down alot, but they are still there. Some play D3 three or four nights a week, but pop into WoW for raids one or two nights.

Most of the WoW haters have been gone for awhile, so they don’t count anymore. They just seem to post the same negative comments on forums. Not seeing alot of poster who recently left WoW.

Played the GW2 beta this weekend, had a blast in WvW and the jumping puzzle dungeon. But my guidlies don’t seem to be interested in other MMOs. I figure any ongoing loss will be to players who simply no longer want to play MMOs.
http://twitter.com/KliffUndersn Klifford von Undersn

Over. I think they will pad so they can keep the 10 mil number. Though we will definitely see more of a drop in future reports. Besides GW2 and MoP still have no release dates so no major drop in numbers until then.
jayremy

Never say WoW is going to lose many subs or WoW fanboys are going to go crazy and assume its some 2012 end world prediction (that is somehow offensive).
Atli Freyr Bjarnason

Over
http://twitter.com/Deadalon Deadalon

Under. Unless they will make some HUUUGEEE offer like giving all subs chance to play MOP beta.

Ive desided to not buy MOP. Just not what I wanted to see in WOW at this time.
http://www.facebook.com/colonel17 Matt Sanford

under. 9,642,381 subs
Remi Chausse

I’m amazed Mike B forgot to make a mention at “MOP IZ GUNNA B FREE”
http://www.facebook.com/adam.michaud.9 Adam Michaud

Under. I think there may be some ups and downs with new mmo releases, especially if Guild Wars 2 beats MoP to the market. But overall..I think they’ll end up slightly under. There’s a lot of good games that hit a lot of niche players that may pull away from Blizzard’s mmo. Its got serious competition now where as in the past it did not.
http://www.hhportals.com/izhelara Lash

Over. I havent played WoW for almost(this time) a year, went back 2 weeks ago. It is still is a solid game with a gfx-style that works even in these high gfx/anim days. I have a on and off “realtion ship” with WoW, but i always enjoy myself when i come back to it.

So now is the question; is this just the nostalgia since this was my first real mmo and i spendt 5ish year playing it or is it still fun for newcomers to the game?

Anyway my personal take on this is that folks will return to WoW.
http://www.facebook.com/Thenatoes Jason Matzke

Over , Blizzard going to Pad that number to be around 10 mil. As they been stressing that the subs been stable in many of their articles at stable 10.3 mil. so i do espect some fall off! As the current trend is about 100k minus to subs.
http://www.facebook.com/clint.casey1 Charles Clint Casey

Under. Blizzard hasn’t released a single new content patch during TOR’s entire lifespan.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Kris-Yeisley/554290488 Kris Yeisley

Over. Annual pass is still in effect, so you won’t see anything under 10 million until October.
- http://www.facebook.com/people/Robbert-de-Wilde/1806039882 Robbert de Wilde
  
  So, that’s only 10% of their players base. The other 9 million could have dropped out. (not saying they did) I say UNDER.
  - http://www.facebook.com/people/Kris-Yeisley/554290488 Kris Yeisley
    
    Their largest drop before the annual pass was 600k subscriptions in a quarter. Assuming worst case scenario and 600k players wanted to drop their subs again, say 10% of them are locked into an annual pass, so only 520k players would be lost in the worst case scenario. Last quarterly call World of Warcraft had stabilized at 10.3 million players. 10.3 million – 520k = 9.78 million players under the worst case scenario. That’s not going to happen. They’re going to remain over 10 million for at least 2 more quarters.
http://www.facebook.com/people/James-Weilage/100000409904552 James Weilage

Over, Current annual pass, possible new annual pass/free or discounted mop, combined with more MOP release info and a nearing street date, and most likely the 5.0 patch hitting live servers to help Blizz push numbers back up prior to the conf. call.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Michael-Johnson/1353890372 Michael Johnson

Over if they release MoP by next report
Shawn Robertson

over
Jado Cast

Over, not sure I will believe them tho
http://www.facebook.com/people/Ian-Smith/100000531128393 Ian Smith

under
Krzysztof Kotarba

under
http://www.facebook.com/people/Kyle-Eggers/100000868131517 Kyle Eggers

I think Under because i think D3 did eat a lot of WoW subs even with the annual pass, and if GW3 comes out it could before the next call it will eat a lot of the WoW subs.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000680895154 Karen Lynn

over, if MoP comes out before or during the next earnings call.
- http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
  
  The earning call is in August the same presumed month when MoP comes out, so the numbers from Q2 wouldn’t matter anymore cause they would of changed already but by the time there release there no true anymore.
http://profile.yahoo.com/ZOTAQFILOUTDE7AT4S4L6LDENU Fatmouth

under, pre panda lull/bottoming out
Damir Miric

I’ll say over.

I dont know by what magic they will achive that. I really cant explain how come they still have so many players its just amazing. Also as far as SWTOR players comming back to wow goes. It happens that yes you do return but you quit a month or two later because you just need some time to remeber why you left before. So you unsub and hope gw2 will make you happy when it comes out.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Bruce-Fauble/1466377126 Bruce Fauble

Over.

Still have over a million subs just from Annual Pass (even if they are not playing currently, like me).

MoP beta has probably gone a fair way to keep people subbed as well.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Joshua-Osmer/100002680014995 Joshua Osmer

Well they just lost another one. I finally unsubbed after 7 years. Killing DW heroic for the last few months got pretty stale, and the whole expansion was pretty stale IMO. Going to say…

Under.
Steven Thompson

I think WoW is waining and that they know they need to release a whole new MMO to really retain their numbers. Under, but expect them to still keep their numbers up if they create some new material… and hopefully soon,
http://www.facebook.com/people/Kyle-Brigman/1046964174 Kyle Brigman

OVER. Got my money that it’s still at 10 million.
http://www.facebook.com/lostsyn Matt Brewer

over
http://www.facebook.com/people/Nate-Glass/505341877 Nate Glass

Over. Cata it’s self is an old dog to be put down, but with Mop on the horizon I don’t think the August earnings call will really matter anyway. The one after that will tell all. Blizz will patch the boat until MoP’s release. I don’t see subs dipping below 9.8 million IMO.
- http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
  
  Agreed, cause by the time The Q2 calling comes out everyone would of already preordered MoP and wont care cause those numbers wouldn’t be non-vaild as that was at the end of Q2 which ends this month and we wont know until around MoP releases and the numbers would spring up again.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=613396248 Chrystal King

over
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=21003660 Keith William Gretton

It’ll be over 9.7 mil if they are near release or have released Mists by the next quarter call. It’ll be under 9.7 mil if they haven’t got a firm release date for Mists by then.
brianadfl

under, wow is dying
- http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
  
  Yepp 10.2 mill Worldwide is totally dead
- brianadfl
  
  dead and dying are two different things
Kagitaar

Over if MoP is out by then, not sure otherwise.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Dejagg-Katana/100000896860860 Dejagg Katana

OVER i’m guessing it’ll be exactly 9.8mil nothing worthwhile that requires a subscription is coming out this year.
http://www.facebook.com/elias.rowan Elias Rowan

Under
Ryan Weckbacher

Subscriber loss reason list:

Swtor, Tera, Guild wars 2

Estimated major subscriber loss:

Guild wars 2 release
- http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
  
  I bet your wrong and GW2 doesn’t even leave a dent. We have heard this for the last 4 years since new MMOs started popping out.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Noam-Doten/578063540 Noam Doten

I predict over 10.1 M
http://www.facebook.com/Kryptstifer Chris X ‘ed Out

Over
http://www.facebook.com/people/R-T-Von-Matsson/666386617 R T Von Matsson

under
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000267765226 Vegas Steve

Under. But I have to suspect their counting, 10 mil seems high (just as 12 did). Do they only count paying subs, or now, with the ‘free to play’ (until lvl 20… what a joke), does that factor in? If so, that strikes me as desperation.
http://twitter.com/NuDimon Ruben Hanssen

Under.
Laura Schwartz

Under
Dimitrias nty

Over. If 10M people still play with nothing happening for a really long time I’m pretty sure there will be more at the release of the new expansion.
http://www.facebook.com/oneniisama Bear Powell

Under
http://twitter.com/Tatlreach Mike S

Over, Annual Pass people are still stuck subbed
Old Ben

People who are fed up with Cataclysm were already fed up with Cataclysm three months ago. The ones who are still subscribed will probably stay subscribed until the release of MoP. If MoP is a paid expansion, I see the numbers dropping as soon as that is announced. If it’s free (as I expect it will be), numbers will probably hold for another quarter.
- xextorior
  
  I think Activision is too money hungry to let MoP go for free. Maybe a discounted price to people who have the annual pass, but I don’t see it being free.
  - Old Ben
    
    They’ll make more money if they make MoP free.
    
    If they announce it’ll be paid, a lot of people will cancel straight away.
    
    If they give it for free to anyone who bought Cataclysm, then a lot of ex-players will come back to check it, and that means they will have to pay at least for a one-month subscription (probably three months, since they know they won’t be able to do everything in one month). That adds up to more than the profits from selling the expansion, _and_ (temporarily, at least) increases the number of players, which will look good on their market reports.
    - http://twitter.com/Luke_Malcolm Luke Malcolm
      
      I’m sorry Old ben but your nuts, Blizzard would never allow the expansion to be free are you kidding me? I don’t understand how Mike B sees it either. Pple will prbly just stop playing and just wait until MoP since they know when to come back. MoP is totally different from Cata and people are gunna try regardless if you gotta pay or not.
      - Old Ben
        
        > I’m sorry Old ben but your nuts
        
        My nuts what? Are they in the way?
        
        > Pple will prbly
        
        Your keyboard seems to be missing some letters.
        
        > MoP is totally different from Cata and people
        > are gunna try regardless if you gotta pay or not.
        
        Yeah, I’m sure that everyone who left is going to come back and pay for an expansion _plus_ a subscription to try out more content designed by the same team who did such a great job in Cataclysm…
xextorior

I think it will be higher, because by then there should be a release date, and even release of MoP.
Old Ben

These estimates are kind of pointless anyway, since no one can check the accuracy of Blizzard’s numbers. For all we know, they have 5 million subscribers (or 50 million) and just decided to report 10 because it served their marketing or fiscal interests.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1734810199 Alex McClarnon

OVER!
http://maloki.se maloki

Under, hopefully!…
I like the whole “Everybody does it, *cough*” … Even gamebreaker.tv?
http://twitter.com/FishBaitism Fish Bait

Under. Guessing a few folk`ll be pished off about the free servers for non-EU/US players & will do a runner, even if temp`.
http://www.facebook.com/lpeace.88 Leo Lamphier

August is the next call? I say over because by August we should at lest know the release date of MoP. If not have already got the per-patch out by then and people will be starting to come back to get ready for MoP. So I’m with Mike.
http://www.facebook.com/lpeace.88 Leo Lamphier

The day GW2 announces they release date WoW will announces MoP will release the week before. GW2 and I’m sure that is way we don’t know at least a general release date for either yet.
- http://www.facebook.com/people/Kris-Yeisley/554290488 Kris Yeisley
  
  What if Guild Wars doesn’t announce GW2 release date until the week before it’s released?
  - Old Ben
    
    Then Blizzard will be forced to power up the time machine they’ve been building in their basement with all the profits from WoW.
  - http://twitter.com/FishBaitism Fish Bait
    
    Would make it funny, but.. Arenanet have said there`ll be a month between them saying the games release date & the day it goes live.
http://www.facebook.com/mpdthompson Marcus Patrick Thompson

Over Subs and MoP are coming
http://profile.yahoo.com/YSVAPKVBUPTX6YS3W2DLPOBNN4 AlokP

Over. Release date for MoP (at least) will be out by next call. TERA players already coming back. GW2 may cut the numbers some but not as much as some ppl think because it’s a flat box price so it’s easy to maintain both a WoW sub and a GW2 acct – I know I will.
J_shepard

under by the looks but out of the 9.7 million sub’s we really cant tell how many of those subs are actually accounts of active players or indeed are accounts of gold sellers.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Myrkul-Myrkulasty/100003735066924 Myrkul Myrkulasty

Few years ago Blizzard devs, especially GC, started to threat players like a piece of shit – Just because their game became a huge success. I think it’s ironic that game masters try to be the good face of blizz while devs threat people on forums like idiots. Anyway I might agree that most players act like morons on forums just caring about their own class however I don’t think it’s a reason to ban people or block topics. It’s like this since years – Ghostcrawler and entire dev team just do whatever they want and I think that “Give us any feedback and suggestions on forum” sentence is just bullshit. They release a new spell – if you don’t like it – You’re “qq’ing” or “trolling”, they just don’t give a shit about player’s ideas of how the game should look like.
Just look on Guild Wars 2 community, there are so many wow players switching to gw2 and giving so much feedback, on new spells, events, mechanics, options or even freaking quests and lore – and best thing, guild wars developers listen to them, at least you see far more replies that are some straight answers like “no, and here is why…” while blizzard devs answer looks like this: “Players have no idea what’s good for them”.

Blizzard will lose many players when gw2 comes out, if it will be good, like it is in beta, I suggest even 1-2 millions loss. I for myself was stupid enough to buy annual pass, just wanted to play d3 and had a break from wow since Ulduar so thought to myself – why not. Too bad both wow and d3 sucks asses compared to D2 or Vanilla WoW. Too bad Blizzard was always too cocky and they’ll rather just shut down all wow servers instead of trying to listen to people.

Like my brother said about wow – Every game is like milk, it has an expiration date. Blizzard’s expiration went bad since Cata.
Yavan

UNDER> I come from the EU. I started playing WoW in Dec 2005 and quit in 2011. The first server I played, Emeriss-EU is a dead server. So is my other server, Genjuros-EU and Nordrassil-EU. Over the years, I have seen my guildmates quit, guilds vanish, and servers turn dead. The last nail on the coffin for us was when Blizzard made the same raid rewards available to 10-man guilds and 20 man raid guilds. This made people “turtle-up” to mini-raid guilds of 10 people speaking their own native language and barring entry to people who didn’t speak it. This resulted into the WoW 20/25 man Raiding Scene being eradicated, leaving thousands and thousands of people guildless and unable to raid. Since what kept the player base together was 25 man raiding guilds (40 man guilds in WoW), the cohesion of the EU player base broke down, and people left in droves never to return. A screenie from my toons back in TBC. Those were the days. My toons as well as my mates, are all dead now. RAIDING SSC W/ MY TBC GUILD IN 2007:http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/9843/sscraiding.jpg and PHOTO OF MY TBC ROGUE, 2007: http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/4964/wow3jb.jpg
Alexander Lanng

way UNDER, wow is hemoraging subs. They will increase with MOP and then shortly after decline just as fast.
AMP24Ski

under wow sucks rlly panada? kung fu panda it up sorry no im not 12 not going to play that. I was on and off for acouple of years i stopped playing with 5 85′s. Game is boring same thing you do every day nothing is new and nothing will ever be new in this game because thats how blizzard is and to many blizzard fanatics make the game stay alive. Your wasting your money on the game. Blizzard won’t get any new players also because of all the fricken expansions it has. To play the game to the fullest you will need to buy WoW Battlechest 20$, WotLK 40$, and cataclysm 40$, then you have the new expansion MoP 60$ thats 160$ just to start playing the game not to mention the monthly fee’s. Yea sorry not happening the numbers will continue to go down
Nosferatou

With the release of MoP there will be players who return only to find in a month or two it’s the same old game. Greg Street, PhD in Marine Biology whose previous gaming experience is Ages of Empires (Did ppl actually play that?), is the lead designer. Each and every expansion since his tenure at Blizzard (starting with WotLK beta) has seen a once entertaining, leading edge game slide down a slippery slope. After 7+ years of play I called it quits after yet another talent tree revision. It’s what Greg excels at in terms of direction. In addition the Poke’Mon battles will prove to be about exciting as the profession of archeology which was nothing but a time killer. Sad to see a once extremly popular and fun to play game spiral downward out of control. Guess thats what happens when you hire someone with a doctoral degree in marine biology to work on game design……..it’ll sleep with the fishes.
Dustin Shoudt

WTF is he talking about? WoW hit it’s peak like 2 expansions ago, then pissed on it’s fan base and started losing subs by the truck load.

Predict World Of Warcraft's Subscription Numbers

Patch 5.3 Release Date Confirmed

Patch 5.3: Purely Pandaria Profession Leveling!

Preparing for Patch 5.3

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Sign in to your account