Is there a Guild Wars 2 expansion in the works? Probably.
The latest report from Korean securities firm KDB Daewoo has mostly good things to say about NCSoft, particularly regarding the launch of Guild Wars 2 and its first few months of operation. Specifically, Q4 2012 is cited as setting a record in operating profit for the company, with GW2 leading the way to the tune of 118 billion Korean won ($110 million USD). Combined with a 3Q OP of W46 billion ($43 million), that makes for a grand total of over $150 million.
As for the future, the report considers the overseas — i.e., North America and Europe — market to be the most lucrative in 2013, including this exciting tidbit:
In China, the company is planning to launch Blade & Soul (via a publishing agreement with Tencent) in 3Q13 and Guild Wars 2 in 4Q13 (via a publishing agreement with Kong Zhong). Furthermore, we expect NCsoft to release an expansion pack for Guild Wars 2 in Europe and the US in 2H13.
OK, but we all figure a GW2 expansion is planned at some point in the next year or so. So what gives this estimate any credence? For that answer, look back at the first few words of the report:
We recently visited NCsoft
Now, we don’t think they walked in the doors of the NCSoft office and some executive said, “Hey, we’re doing a Guild Wars 2 expansion in the second half of 2013.” But they probably saw some projections and were able to piece together what they did see to come up with a reasonable explanation for whatever spike(s) they may have seen. And this is about as close to the source as you can get without visiting ArenaNet‘s offices.
KDB Daewoo also predicted that a Guild Wars 2 launch date announcement was “imminent” about three weeks before the actual announcement was made, so they’ve got something of a track record.
Then again, they also predicted Guild Wars 2 would launch before Thanksgiving. Technically correct, but about three months off. Close enough? We’ll have to wait and see.