Guild Wars 2 Launch Date Announcement

KDB Daewoo Securities, which bills itself as a leader in the Korean securities market, issues regular  financial statement on NCSoft and its wholly-owned subsidiary, ArenaNet.

Its most recent entries have included some interesting predictions — including a potential launch window — regarding Guild Wars 2.

According to the April report, the March closed beta test was successful enough that “foreign investors have been increasing their buying of NCSoft shares.”

The report predicts 3.12 million sales of Guild Wars 2 in North America and Europe in 2012, far exceeding NCSoft’s last big Western release, Aion, which sold 1.5 million copies in 2009. Also, NCSoft will receive $48 out of every $59.99 copy of GW2 sold.

The May report echoes that NCSoft is a strong buy, based on the potential for GW2 and the Korean-only MMO Blade & Soul, even going so far as to drop these juicy tidbits:

We expect NCsoft to generate earnings momentum from 3Q through 2013, aided by the launches of Blade & Soul and Guild Wars 2.

Blade & Soul (3Q) and Guilds [sic] Wars 2 (4Q) to start generating revenues

And we anticipate that Guild Wars 2 will be rolled out in the US and Europe before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Technically, they’re making guesses — albeit fairly educated ones — just like the rest of us, but it’s a little depressing to think that people who get paid large sums of money to figure these things out think we might have to wait until November for Guild Wars 2.

However, the June report — which came out a week ago and blames NCSoft’s poor recent performance on the emergence of Diablo III —  offers more optimistic news:

Furthermore, given the expected commercial launches of two potential blockbusters (Blade & Soul and Guild Wars 2) in 3Q, we project the company’s 3Q operating profit to reach the W100bn level.

Given that the company will need some preparation time (for marketing and cooperation with online and offline agencies) before the commercial launch in 3Q, we think that an announcement about Guild Wars 2’s commercial launch is imminent.

We can only hope.