Its most recent entries have included some interesting predictions — including a potential launch window — regarding Guild Wars 2.
According to the April report, the March closed beta test was successful enough that “foreign investors have been increasing their buying of NCSoft shares.”
The report predicts 3.12 million sales of Guild Wars 2 in North America and Europe in 2012, far exceeding NCSoft’s last big Western release, Aion, which sold 1.5 million copies in 2009. Also, NCSoft will receive $48 out of every $59.99 copy of GW2 sold.
We expect NCsoft to generate earnings momentum from 3Q through 2013, aided by the launches of Blade & Soul and Guild Wars 2.
Blade & Soul (3Q) and Guilds [sic] Wars 2 (4Q) to start generating revenues
And we anticipate that Guild Wars 2 will be rolled out in the US and Europe before the Thanksgiving holiday.
Technically, they’re making guesses — albeit fairly educated ones — just like the rest of us, but it’s a little depressing to think that people who get paid large sums of money to figure these things out think we might have to wait until November for Guild Wars 2.
Furthermore, given the expected commercial launches of two potential blockbusters (Blade & Soul and Guild Wars 2) in 3Q, we project the company’s 3Q operating profit to reach the W100bn level.
Given that the company will need some preparation time (for marketing and cooperation with online and offline agencies) before the commercial launch in 3Q, we think that an announcement about Guild Wars 2’s commercial launch is imminent.
We can only hope.